Alf(@MacroAlf) 's Twitter Profileg
Alf

@MacroAlf

Founder of The Macro Compass. Former Head of $20bn Portfolio. Next: CIO of my own Macro Fund.

ID:1344759366671589376

linkhttps://www.TheMacroCompass.com/ calendar_today31-12-2020 21:36:42

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Markets are looking for a release valve to punish Fed cuts while nominal growth doesn't justify them:

- Commodities ripping
- Bond markets waking up
- The USD wrecking ball

Pick your poison.

Macro volatility is coming.

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ECB today:

“We are gonna cut in June but not because we are weak or something, but because we are a grown-up independent Central Bank!”

(Read with French accent)

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Stop looking for “something to break” in the US.

At this pace the US Dollar will break some foreign economy way faster.

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So the US is now:

- The issuer of the global reserve currency

- One of the biggest center of innovation and entrepreneurial place in the world

- A big exporter of commodities (e.g. crude oil and liquified natural gas)

But America is about to collapse, right?

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The job market is strong, right…

That’s why we have the least amount of voluntary quits since 2017.

In a strong labor market people quit to get paid better elsewhere, they don’t stick to their job as they have no valid alternative!

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