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Decoupling - the transhipped language is a latent bomb in every one of these letters. If tomorrow China tariffs ratchet to 100% over night inbound supply will go to zero across major U.S. exporters

“no idea what Kazakhstan has done”

These tariffs of 30% on South Africa, 25% on Malaysia and Kazakhstan are geopolitical signals. Each country named is either formally aligned with BRICS (South Africa), a participant in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (Malaysia and Kazakhstan), or plays a growing role in non

Every letter has the same line: “goods transhipped to evade a higher tariff will be subject to that higher tariff” - the only line that really matters.

The next step is to buyback some of the credibility they lost from the 90-day pause. Likely looks something like nuking an economy. My guess is Canada.

As you try to figure out what the Trump admin is attempting I would advise a close look at Mexico. I believe Claudia and Justin were given preferential/courtesy early warnings of what was being attempted and what global trade might look like by the end of the year. Claudia

Let me elucidate further how this feeds into my original decoupling thesis. Remember I posited on day one that simply shutting out China from US supply chains was insufficient. China has achieved strategic choke points at the base layer of much of Western industrial supply.

Exit.

Andurils gonna be a $1T company within the decade.

Here is my o3 DR prompt. I keep adjusting, but it gives me good results. Combine with 10K/earnings transcripts/whatever else you want it to ingest You are an elite investment research analyst. This intent of this prompt is to become a universal one for generating primers and a

If the 50% tariff on Brazil actually goes into effect, especially on high sensitivity exports like iron ore, soybeans, or beef, it will begin a chain reaction that destabilizes Brazil’s internal balance and exposes its strategic overreach. The Brazilian real (BRL) would likely

I have a theory that now that Trump got what he wanted, which was the BBB, he could afford to get tougher on Trade: That he did, with +50% tariffs on Copper and +50% tariffs on Brazil. So far the Market doesn't care. It will only care if he escalates against EU/Japan/China. 🌳

The Pentagon is becoming the largest shareholder in MP Materials, a rare earth magnet producer Shares of $MP are up 41% pre-market

If you didn’t see this coming you haven’t been paying attention. Similar deals in APIs, nat gas turbines etc will quickly follow. My diagnosis from the start is about intent. I didn’t say the current admin would succeed. Only that they would try like hell to accomplish

Reminder

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I only have two things on my mind: coupling and decoupling. With Latinas and China, respectively.

Next up weaponizing dollar liquidity. Bessent is going to make the Liz Truss-Gilt experience look like child’s play. Someone periodically check on Jeff Snider, he might be the only one who fully appreciates the minefield that is about to be navigated.