A good example of correlation, not causation. The distance to a train station is most likely correlated with education levels, a strong determinant of voting behavior

The idea of a geographic divide also fuels the far-right's narrative of a disconnect with "elites," which is both misleading and dangerous. This graph from a 2017 book is problematic because it ignores education as a controlling factor, likely explaining the observed effect.

The tactical cross-party candidate withdrawals in 🇫🇷 to stop Le Pen’s party winning a majority may be working. The first seat projection by a polling group for the final vote on July 7 shows the RN getting 190-220 of 577 seats, well short of the 289 needed Source: Harris Interactive

This is basically wrong. The reason economists publish less is that the min publishable unit (MPU?) in econ is big. Fields make diff choices on this. The finance MPU is smaller than econ. The CS MPU is tiny. The MPU in some humanities/soc sci fields is a good which is longer

Desperately seeking a 🇫🇷 government. With no bloc holding a majority, 3 scenarios : -minority left-wing government (short life guaranteed) -cross-party coalition (differences hard to overcome) -technical government (last resort) In ⁦The Economist⁩ economist.com/europe/2024/07…

How (not) to publish a paper: 1. Submit paper 2. Rejected, R3 demands X 3. I'll do X later 4. 5 years later, f***k it, resubmit the exact same paper without X

📊 Check out the last Burundi's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a decreasing conflict risk in history. Explore more: 🗺️ Webapp thomasschinca.github.io/Pace-map-risk/ 📄 Monthly Report forecastlab.org/predictionmap 💻 Github repo github.com/ThomasSchinca/…

"We show that Black families whose ancestors were enslaved until the Civil War have considerably lower education, income, & wealth [today] than Black families whose ancestors were free before the Civil War." Forth @QJEharvard by Lukas Althoff & Reichardt lukasalthoff.github.io/jmp/althoff_jm…

For those of you doing PhDs that need to hear it: your dissertation is an exam *not* a published book & totalising perfection *is* the enemy of the good & the great. If this reminder is helpful, do pass it on.

Senior faculty presenting the paper written by their graduate student

Modern econometrics

Social science papers are too long. That's it.

📊 Check out the last Tiffany Huggins's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a decreasing conflict risk in history. Explore more: 🗺️ Webapp thomasschinca.github.io/Pace-map-risk/ 📄 Monthly Report forecastlab.org/predictionmap 💻 Github repo github.com/ThomasSchinca/…

📊 Check out the last Russia 🇷🇺's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a stable conflict risk in history. Explore more: 🗺️ Webapp thomasschinca.github.io/Pace-map-risk/ 📄 Monthly Report forecastlab.org/predictionmap 💻 Github repo github.com/ThomasSchinca/…

Check out our latest article in Political Analysis with Jian Cao! We show how units can react at varying speeds to shocks, which can distort causal estimates in Synthetic Controls. We introduce a more efficient dynamic estimator to correct these biases bit.ly/3O3EsB2

📊 Check out the last Pete Rogers's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a slightly increasing conflict risk in history. Explore more: 🗺️ Webapp thomasschinca.github.io/Pace-map-risk/ 📄 Monthly Report forecastlab.org/predictionmap 💻 Github repo github.com/ThomasSchinca/…

📘 New publication in Journal of Forecasting, with T. Schincariol We show that migration flows exhibit recurring temporal patterns. Leveraging these temporal shapes dramatically improves forecasting accuracy, even with limited data. 🔗doi.org/10.1002/for.32…

📊 Check out the last Bangladesh's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a decreasing conflict risk in history. Explore more: 🗺️ Webapp thomasschinca.github.io/Pace-map-risk/ 📄 Monthly Report forecastlab.org/predictionmap 💻 Github repo github.com/ThomasSchinca/…

Real footage of a synthetic control model: