Mini breadth thrust? 25% of $SPX stocks jumped above their upper Bollinger Bands In the past 10 years, this led to a rally 90% of the time over the following 3 weeks

Apple is down pre-market and is on track to be down 7 consecutive days 8 of the last 10 times this happened, $AAPL was up 2-3 days later h/t Heisenberg

Consumer sentiment is low University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment is at 54 This tends to happen after recessions and bear markets Here's what $SPX did next

Sentiment is improving For the first time in over a year, AAII Bulls outnumber Bears for 6 consecutive weeks This occurred after bear markets, with $SPX gaining an average of 17.6% in the next year

Market breadth is improving Less than 50% of S&P 500 stocks are now in a correction - the first time in more than 200 days Historically, when breadth strengthened, $SPX was up each time 3-4 weeks later

Market breadth is improving. 68% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200 day moving average, for the first time in over 3 months Since 2003, similar breadth recoveries saw $SPX higher every time 9 months later.

Strong start to the year The S&P 500 went up 6 of the first 7 trading days this year Historically, such strong starts saw $SPX higher almost every time, 4 - 5 days later and 2 months later

Breadth is expanding The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index rose above 66% for the first time in over three months Historically, this level of participation was constructive, with $SPX higher 90% of the time over the next 9–12 months, with an average gain of 13% over the next year

The S&P 500 fell -0.5% today, while the Equal-Weighted S&P gained +0.4% 8 of the 9 most recent instances saw $SPX higher 3 days later

While $SPX declined over 0.5% yesterday, 300+ S&P 500 stocks rallied - a positive breadth divergence Historically, such divergences were bullish, with $SPX rising 8 of 9 times over the next 3 months

Breadth is expanding 69% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average for the first time in over 3 months Historically, expanding breadth saw $SPX higher 82% of the time, 2 weeks later

Investment Managers' sentiment is bullish NAAIM Exposure Index is at 96. This is the 7th straight week with NAAIM above 90 Historical streaks of such high sentiment saw $SPX higher 6 out of 6 times, 3 months later

Breadth is improving The NYSE Bullish Percent Index rose above 67% for the first time in more than 3 months Historically, this level of participation was bullish, with $SPX higher almost every time, 9 months later, with an average gain of 8.6%

$SPX rallied more than 4% during this Turn-of-Year period (November 19-January 19). This is known as the TOY Barometer from Wayne Whaley When the TOY period exceeded 3%, $SPX was higher 36 out of 38 times, 12 months later. The average gain was almost 16%

Despite bullish seasonality, strong breadth, recovering sentiment.... $SPX is barely higher than where it was in October, weighed down by large cap tech while it's nice to see breadth expand, large cap tech needs to rally soon