not only is our economic regime model in risk-off territory, but our liquidity indicator is too.

new PnL ATH today. 31% cash too.

GM. one hour to go until CPI. core services remains the category with the heaviest impact in the price index. with further disinflation being confirmed by commodities, maybe not in this print, but it’s only a matter of time until service disinflation accelerates as well.

in-line and at 2.5%. why is the Fed at 5% again?

Fed market is back to odds favoring 25bps for September. this isn’t surprising, nor is it consequential in the long duration bond trade. what matters most for bonds is where they stop cutting. they’re priced to stop cutting around 2.75%. too high? buy. too low? sell.

i’ve come to realize that too many people on here believe substantive alpha exists in shorting things. the reason shorting volatility works so well for us imho is bc it goes along with the long term trend of bull markets. other than that, you’re fighting an uphill battle from

disinflation trends are intact, growth has moderated. CPI is irrelevant unless it can hold a prints > 3% going forward. 2% is within reach. growth is the priority now.

imho the Fed should cut 50bps, but more importantly they should already have started the cutting cycle. feels a bit speculative to aim for a 50bps cut at this point, given they are walking a tight line between acting rationally and scaring markets.

Long bond green on a hot core cpi print is notable

ngl this is a possibility

RQF new all-time highs!!! LFG Chads!

bullish trends tend to lead to higher prices. sure, dips will happen and they should be welcomed by those who missed the priors. but we're riding this, not for a price target, but until the signals say otherwise. $TLT

why is the long end not at 3%, or at the least below 2018 highs? growth, inflation, and inflation expectations are all at/below those levels.

weaker commodities will continue to lead to weaker risk asset prices. commodities are in "growth scare" territory until they stabilize or leave it, they're going to remain a drag on risk assets.

the Fed won't accept inflation above 2% over the long term. they'll bring a recession if they need to. don't underestimate their basis for existence. they claim life to two mandates, price stability and maximum employment. they oversold everyone on the premise that price

long bonds with leverage since 7/2 and chill has been so much fun and easy. love it when the pivots run off the bat; it makes managing the rest of the cycle a little easier because you’re deep itm quickly.

Don't say we didn't warn you

When deflation is obvious, you'll be too late for the trade