Why has Trump led Biden in national polling for the last six months? First and foremost, inflation. More than 60% of voters consistently say their family’s income is falling behind due to inflation.

Second, in a change from 2020, Trump now has the edge on Biden on three key attributes. Having the necessary mental and physical health to be president, being competent and effective, and having the ability to handle a crisis.

The “and worse” really makes it, just in case you missed the pt nymag.com/intelligencer/…

The Biden campaign is busy fighting with the New York Times, but he is winning newspaper readers by 49 points! The President’s problems are instead with those who get their information about the campaign from digital media (trails by 3), and with those who do not follow the

President Biden’s rating on handling the War between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is dismal, and his most significant problems come with those who get their Presidential campaign news from social media. With these voters, his numbers on the War are 15% approve/81% disapprove, far

SUN| Republican pollster Jim Hobart (jim hobart) and Democratic pollster Nancy Zdunkewicz (Nancy Zdunkewicz) discuss Campaign 2024 and political news of the day. Watch live at 8:00am ET!

Always great to join my friends at CSPAN and Washington Journal. Enjoyed being on with Nancy Zdunkewicz this morning!

Go try and win a competitive statewide in a swing state by spending less money and less on TV. Let me know how that goes.

In 2016, David Trone spent 13 million to try and win a congressional primary and lost. Eight years later, he spent 60 million to try and win a senate primary and lost. This doesn’t prove money doesn’t matter in politics, it proves people don’t like David Trone!

With Govs Hogan and Justice tonight, the Senate GOP succeeded in ‘24 where they failed in ‘22 by recruiting and nominating politically popular candidates that effectively change the entire map for the party. Massive accomplishment that shouldn’t go unappreciated

As Jonathan Martin says, great column from Dan Balz with lots of valuable insights from my colleague Bill McInturff.

It is difficult to exaggerate how much Alex Gage transformed how we do politics. He was a profoundly important person in the history of the American political campaign.

The wordcloud below from April ‘21 is clear evidence that voter concerns about Biden’s cognition have been strong undercurrents during his entire presidency. The Democratic Party seriously miscalculated by not facing this obvious problem sooner.

Experts shouldn’t be **ruling** our lives. No one should be ruling anybody. This is a democracy Steven. The Court isn’t saying they should rule our lives, they’re saying democratically elected representatives and senators should write laws that rule how the government operates.

Great to partner with The LIBRE Initiative again on a national survey of Hispanics. Key takeaway: Hispanics continue to trend towards Republicans due to their frustration with the economy, the situation at the border, and their disappointment in the job President Biden is doing.

“Benjamin Franklin was once asked what sort of government the Constitutional Convention had produced. Franklin’s reply: “A republic, if you can keep it.” His words should ring in our ears today. We may have only an inch to spare.” Excerpt from Dave McCormick Op-Ed in the The Wall Street Journal

One of the most interesting polling stories of 2024 is the movement of younger voters away from Biden. It’s happening. The degree to which it is happening is roiling the community of pollsters. Here’s what we are seeing

Some context from me within this v good piece. Harris would start out with image of 32/50 (v similar to Biden). Could improve, but her two competitive campaigns likely don’t give Dems much hope of that (narrow win in 2010 AG and bust of a 2020 Pres campaign).

MT Sen this year tracking to look a lot like ND Sen in 2018, which makes sense. Sheehy is a very strong candidate and Montana is a red state. Sometimes it’s just that simple.

With the 2024 primaries coming to a close last night, Public Opinion Strategies would like to congratulate the winning candidates we polled in support of this primary season. Onward to victory in November! David McCormick, PA Sen Andrew Bailey, MO AG Juan Ciscomani, AZ CD-6