Fed Voting Member Schmid pushes back on September rate cut this morning.

From all the recent Fed talk, I bet Powell is uber hawkish tomorrow and may even push back again a rate cut in September.

If the Fed doesn’t cut rates in September, a 10%-15% correction is likeky coming. I just don’t know how the market continues to grind higher unless the Fed cuts rates in September.

The #1 problem with options flow scanners. Yesterday unusual call volume in $BULL with all option scanners showing the buying was on the Ask. It was not all those 8/22/2025 $BULL calls yday were sold. There’s no way for sure to ever know a call option is being bought…

The only way to really know is to check changes in open interest the next morning..

Ive said this before if there is huge, unusual call volume in a stock and the stock is not moving or it keeps dropping you have to assume the calls are being sold regardless of what some scanners says.

September rate cut offs have significantly dropped since Monday: CME Fed watch now down to 79% chance of a rate cut Polymarket now down to 65% Kalshi now down 66%

(The job market is really starting to cool off) US weekly jobless claims rise to highest since June finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly…

A lot of hedging-selling this week before Powell’s speech tomorrow, question now, will it already be priced in tomorrow and stocks pop..

Gold stocks $GDX breaking out

Wow $CBRL Cracker Barrel down almost 12% because of a new logo change, companies never learn.

I’ve been to $CBRL once and the bathrooms were so crowded and disgusting I couldn’t even eat my lunch. Place is like a glorified truck stop.

Over 10,000 $SE 8/22/2025 $190 calls have already traded this morning for 15 cents. My caveat is you never know 100% sure of these calls are being bought so just watch the stock if $SE starts moving up the calls are likely being purchased. .

$SE red to green

Fed members are out in force today

It now seems the Fed may not cut rates in September. Therefore can the market still grind higher without a Sept rate cut. It has all year without a rate cut. The right guess will make you a lot of money either going short the market now or buying the J Hole dip,

$UNH is on the verge of a big, bullish box breakout…

While tech is dumping, healthcare $XLV is breaking out…

The best looking charts right now are in healthcare. $HUM Humana a huge breakout from a very long base.