Invest #98L is at 90%. Slight midlevel spin but still not at the surface. Westerly shear has it tilted a little. Models still all over the place with such a wide range of solutions. Some fast some slow some north some further west. #Tropics #Tropicalwx

Tropical Storm #Melissa forms south of Hispaniola, the 13th storm of the season. Melissa is expected to be a very slow mover. By Saturday it should still be south of the western tip of the Tiburon Peninsula of #Haiti where a hurricane watch is currently. TS watch up for #Jamaica.

HURRICANE HISTORY - #OTD 20 years ago, Hurricane #Wilma makes landfall on the island of #Cozumel with 150 mph winds. A still standing western hemisphere 24 hour record of 64.33” of rain fell in Isla Mujeres. #Tropics #Tropicalwx

The 2025 theme continues as the LLC of #Melissa is well out in front of the convection giving us a partially exposed center. Melissa’s aligning and organizing will likely determine its future path. Expected to be a slow process as it goes into drift mode over the next few days.

Are we done after #Melissa? Here’s the take from the CPC. #Tropics #Tropicalwx

TS #Melissa has slowed to a crawl. Shear still having an impact so strengthening not happening …yet. GFS still has Hispaniola hit but models are trending to a south of Jamaica track. This could lead to a powerful hurricane. NHC now has a major in the forecast.

HURRICANE HISTORY - #OTD 20 years ago the auxiliary list for naming Atlantic storms was instituted for the 1st time when Tropical Storm #Alpha was named. #Tropics #Tropicalwx

#Melissa is struggling at the moment but that likely leads to a more westward motion. It also possibly means a much stronger storm later. Some hurricane models are downright scary but those are on the fringe, though the NHC has upped its max thru 5 days to CAT 4.

GFS is not backing off Hispaniola even though what trends there are are much further west. #Melissa is still struggling with shear. If it weren’t already classified a TS I have doubts it would be now. CAT 4 is still in the official NHC forecast. #Jamaica

#Melissa may be starting to show signs of getting better organized with convection now starting to fire around LLC. NHC still has CAT 4 in the forecast and models look to have it out for #Jamaica 🙏

Once again the LLC of #Melissa seems to be outrunning the convection indicating shear is still strong. At the same time, the NHC has upped max intensity in its forecast to a 145 mph CAT 4 by Monday. Horrible situation for #Jamaica.

An LLC reformation a little further north is bringing the official forecast track of #Melissa that much closer to #Jamaica. NHC max is still at 145 mph. Land interaction could alter that a lot. Rainfall however, won’t be affected. 20”+ expected over much of the island.

#Melissa is starting to get that shrimp look. Winds have increased to 60 mph. NHC now has a max of 150 mph. Track guidance is still quite spread but none of it is good for #Jamaica.

HURRICANE HISTORY - #OTD 20 years ago Hurricane #Wilma makes its final landfall as a CAT 3 with 120 mph winds near Cape Romano, FL. Wilma crossed Florida never dropping below CAT 2.

Looks like #Melissa is about ready to take off. Up to 65 mph now. NHC now has a max of 155 mph and the new official track slams it right in to the middle of #Jamaica at I’m guessing high end CAT 4 to low end CAT 5. Still looking at Tue. timeframe so maybe something can change?🙏

#Melissa is still not officially a hurricane. Could be any minute though. Although a #Jamaica strike looks imminent, models are still pretty spread out in the 48-72 hour range.

#Melissa finally reaches hurricane status. 5th of the season.

Hurricane #Melissa is about to go nuclear. Already up to 90 mph. NHC now forecasting a CAT 5. This is, of course, before it reaches #Jamaica.