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Want to see your own research or favourite papers visualized? Explore their causal graphs on our website! Try it here: causal.claims

I'm teaching a grad seminar this winter on Prediction for Decision-making. We'll look at what it means to make good predictions for decision-making from various angles, with a focus on decisions for & about people. Reading list: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/06/new… Suggestions welcome!

"Generative AI simply isn’t the strategic oracle many say it is." s.hbr.org/4g5aQQg

A quick throwback. Related to many AI-related debates going on right now.

Theory Is All You Need: AI, Human Cognition, and Causal Reasoning "AI uses a probability-based approach to knowledge and is largely backward looking and imitative, whereas human cognition is forward-looking and capable of generating genuine novelty." pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/st…

For anyone interested: a webinar on Lean and the Scientific Method (Mon 3/10 noon EST). I'll be doing a short presentation of our paper "A Scientific Method for Startups" - with Gambardella Novelli Zenger. Great lineup: Blank Gruber Barney Alvarez Sarasvathy Bacq Zott McGrath...

Mark your calendars for a webinar on Lean Entrepreneurship, on March 10 at 12 pm EST! I'll be participating alongside Shaker Zahra of UMN, James Combs of UCF, and Marc Gruber of the Academy of Management. Register here to join the discussion! ucf.zoom.us/j/94739533978

The Bayesian Entrepreneurship conference in Milan (SDA Bocconi) was fantastic. Big-time thanks to Arnaldo Camuffo Alfonso Gambardella Ajay Agrawal Joshua Gans Erin Scott Scott Stern #Bayesian

11 years later, I still think the frame problem is a knock down argument against AI (when it comes to novelty) See this 2014 piece with Stuart Kauffman et al: drive.google.com/file/d/1yrIDZR…

How we "guessed" the Pope using network science: inside the cardinal network. A study by me, Beppe Soda and Alessandro Iorio. Article: unibocconi.it/en/news/networ… Università Bocconi

Congrats to our daughter Dr Emma Felin! She just successfully defended her doctoral thesis University of Oxford

When should you use AI, and when not? This paper—with Mari Sako and Jessica Hullman—provides some criteria: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Comments on the paper are definitely welcome. Just DM me.

Does #AI Prediction Scale to #DecisionMaking? The authors argue that there are fundamental limits to AI’s predictive paradigm. Authors: Mari Sako & Teppo Felin Read More: spkl.io/6010fAN9s #AcademicTwitter

Super important paper on the limits of AI in decision-making, especially as the "AI first" trend escalates and we try to understand cases where AI should NOT be used. Key takeaways from the paper: - AI and humans have comparative advantage in different types of decisions. - AI

Artificial Intelligence and Actor-Specific Decisions: this article explores the limitations of #AI in decision-making, and introduces a criteria for determining when human judgment remains essential. spkl.io/6010f7GTI Teppo Felin Jessica Hullman

LLMs are good at predicting—does that scale to decision making? No, argue Sako & Teppo Felin, they cannot envision possibilities beyond existing data, generate new hypotheses or run experiments to get new data—essential for general real-world decisions: buff.ly/anm2HPQ