Adil (@templargin) 's Twitter Profile
Adil

@templargin

ID: 227266304

linkhttps://templargin.com/investing calendar_today16-12-2010 11:07:41

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$NOA Had a 1x1 with Joe. Sharp, to the point, nice guy. MacKellar was my biggest question - why sell at these terms? They were approached by PE, banks but always said "no". Selling to the right people was a priority. Exactly what I wanted to hear. Stronger for longer.

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$VAPO SP - $1.27 SOI - 6.1m Equity - $7.75m Cash - $14.4m Debt - $107m EV - $100m OTC move caused indiscriminate selling which resulted in equity of $6m on $70m of sales at 42% GM - crazy. 1st re-rate - after breaking even (mid 2024) 2nd re-rate - revenue growth (end of 2024)

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$SUP SP - $3.44 SOI - 28.1m Equity - $97m Cash - $176m Term loan - $376m (bearing 13.3%) Senior notes - $227m (bearing 6%) Preferred - $242m Total debt - $845m Net debt - $669m EV - $766m EBITDA (guided) - $170m EV/EBITDA - 4.5

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$RMBL SP - $7 SOI - 35m Equity - $245m Net debt - $200m ABL - $287m EV - $732m EV/EBITDA ($85m) 2024E - 8.6 w/o ABL in EV: EV - $445m EV/EBITDA (~$70m) 2024E - 6.4 $50m Interest $10m Capex. FCF - $10m MC/FCF - 24.5 I like the setup but this is not cheap.

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$NOA (in CAD) SP - $30.34 SOI - 26.7m Equity - $810m Cash - $40m Credit - $200m ABF - $78m CDs - $130m Mortgage - $29m Net debt - $397m FY2024(g, low): EPS - $4.25 PE - 7.1 EBITDA - $430m EV = 1.4(g)*EBITDA + MC = $1412m EV/EBITDA - 3.3 FCF - $160m MC/FCF - 5

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$CULP SP - $4.91 SOI - 12.4m Equity - $61m Debt - N/A Cash - $15m EV - $46m TBV - $82m MC/TBV - 0.75 Cash, AR, inventories and properties make up most of the assets. 2023 was the worst year for existing home sales (3.8m) since 1995. Industry leader. Good value play.

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$SEZL SP - $50 SOI - 5.7m MC - $285m Cash - $70m LTM numbers: Rev - $160m NI - $7.1m PE - 40.7 P/S - 1.8 NTM numbers (guided): Rev - $192m NI - $20m PE - 14.25 P/S - 1.5 Despite 4x-ing in less than 3 months the NTM numbers do not look too crazy. Go Charlie Charlie Youakim !

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$NOA Nuna issue will be fixed going forward, seasonality will smoothen because of MK. Despite the hiccup, guidance remained unchanged. I have a feeling MK will yield more results than anticipated. Thesis here depends on whether you believe the management or not. I do.

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'Dreamy business offering has at least four characteristics. Customers love it, it can grow to very large size, it has strong returns on capital, and it’s durable in time with the potential to endure for decades. When you find one of these don’t just swipe right, get married'