Weighted samples boost the No vote % by keeping an artificial gap of 8 or 9 points. In reality the gap is now only 2 or 3 points. Many pollsters also suppress the % of new voters - likely around 29% of the electorate now.
#Indyref2

You can see what the Panelbase weighting does to the #Indyref2 voting intention clearly in the polling tables.
The top line is weighted; the second line is unweighted.
This is not unusual, but the effects of this bizarre weighting are becoming more extreme.

If you look at the unweighted samples over time, the different trends among 2014 Yes and No voters are pretty clear. The % who voted No has dropped more steeply due to the older demographics of this cohort.
#Indyref2

Nessie #indyref2

Yes 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 is back in the lead for the first time since November, in R&W polling.

#IndyRef2

Another interesting set of data tables in the latest Panelbase/ Norstat #Indyref2 poll. The unweighted figures show a whopping 7-pt Yes lead gets turned into a 7-pt No lead through weighting & turnout adjustment. A reasonable reweighting of the original figures would show a tie.

Ian Murray MP We need independence not more Plundering…
GET OFF YOUR KNEES, SCOTLAND 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 #IndyRef2

Scottish Greens reject election pact with SNP, aiming to push their own agenda by Standing in more seats.

#ScottishIndependence #indyref2

Just a reminder that Labour are just as big a bunch of cunts as the Tories are.

#RedTories
#YouYesYet
#IndyRef2

Yoons are too fucking stupid to even understand this very simple concept.

#IndyRef2
#CultOfYoon
#YoonsBeStupid

Tic Toc...

#IndyRef2

theyworkforyou.com/msp/24738/anas…

#LabourDoorstep #RedTories #VoteLabourGetTory #indyref2 #VoteSNP #GeneralElectionN0W

Gordon Brown admits independence campaign is 'greater than' Unionism #indyref2 #ScottishIndependence #ScottishIndependence 2024 thenational.scot/news/24253265.…

Yet Labour have U-turned on employment law being devolved 🤦‍♂️
#VoteLabourGetTory #RedTories #SirKidStarver #freshstart #GeneralElectionNow #NHS #NHS Pledge #indyref2 #VoteSNP #YouYesYet

#indyref2

Scottish Labour Promise, promise but you do the opposite in real life 😡
Taking money from the NHS, £10billion for £2billion worth of hospital 😏
RED TOTIES #ScottishIndependenceASAP #IndyRef2 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Do you support the independence of Scotland?
Specify YES no No!!!
#ScottishIndependence #indyref2

Just a reminder that Labour also pissed away £2.5 million trying to stop women in Glasgow from getting equal pay. They also voted with the Tories to stop children from getting free school meals!

#VoteLabourGetTory
#YouYesYet
#IndyRef2

After 2014 Yes voters, those who did not vote are the most likely to back #Yes (By 60:40 excluding D/K)
But why would a pollster have a declining % of new voters in a weighted poll?
Are yougov manipulating the sample to suit the narrative?
#Indyref2