US GDP rose 3.0% in Q2, but the real story is the consumer. Spending bounced back (especially on cars, dining, and services) signaling that confidence is quietly returning. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

Consumer spending rose 0.3% in June, led by services, but inflation remains stubborn with core PCE up 2.8% year-over-year. The pause is ending, but price pressures are keeping growth modest. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

US jobs growth stalls: July payrolls up just 73K, with prior months revised down by 258K. Unemployment rises to 4.2%. Wage growth remains strong at 3.9% YoY, helping consumer spending hold up. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

Final July data on Consumer Sentiment shows Americans remain cautious. The index edged up to 61.7, with inflation expectations dropping but job worries rising. Today’s weak jobs report suggests consumers sensed trouble before the data. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

Factory orders fell 4.8% in June, erasing last month’s gains and signaling a fast return to uncertainty. With jobs revised sharply lower and new tariffs sparking fresh price fears, both consumers and businesses are back on ice. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

US closes the de minimis loophole, ending tariff-free entry for billions of small packages from sites like Temu and Shein. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

Stagflation risks are rising. Inflation is holding above 3%, unemployment is ticking up, and labor force participation is at its lowest since 2022. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

Jobless claims hit 226K, the highest continuing claims since 2021. Signs of a softening labor market matter more than ever for businesses, consumers, and the Fed. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

US CEO Confidence jumped to 49 in Q3 from 34 in Q2 a big rebound, but still below the neutral mark of 50. Fear of recession plunged from 83% to 36%, yet more CEOs now plan job cuts than expansions. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

Even with record prices & elevated rates, first-time buyers are holding their share of the market NY Fed research shows. My view: policy moves could soon turn resilience into acceleration. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/08/who-is…

Core inflation rose 0.3% in July, hitting 3.1% YoY the highest since Feb. Headline CPI stayed at 2.7%. Shelter, medical care & airfares drove gains; gas fell 2.2%. Hotter core may complicate Fed’s Sept. cut decision as real earnings climb 0.4%. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

Mortgage rates just saw their biggest drop since Feb. Refinancing surged, but buyers barely moved. Loss aversion may be at play: waiting for “even lower” rates can outweigh acting now. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

President Trump says he’s opening the Fed Chair search to private-sector candidates. Which means (technically) I’m in the running. Kind of like when Ronan Farrow joked we’re all possibly Frank Sinatra’s son, after his mom famously said “possibly” when asked the question.

US wholesale inflation jumped 0.9% in July (the biggest rise in 3 years) as tariffs push costs higher. Many firms are passing these on, raising the risk of higher consumer prices ahead. The Fed’s Sept rate cut now looks less certain. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

July retail sales rose 0.5%, with core up 0.3%. Gains in online & clothing offset declines in electronics, building materials, & dining. Spending is shifting toward value & essentials is a sign of caution the Fed will watch closely as rate cuts near. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

Consumer sentiment fell to 58.6 in August, its first decline in 4 months. Current conditions dropped sharply, and inflation expectations rose to 4.9% (1-year) and 3.9% (5-year). linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

Comcast is spinning off MSNBC into Versant and rebranding it as MS NOW. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

US housing starts rose 5.2% in July to a 5-month high. But the real story is multifamily, up nearly 10% to its fastest pace in 2+ years. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

TJX raised its outlook after another strong quarter — a reminder that retail is splitting. Off-price chains thrive, department stores struggle, luxury is mixed. Consumers aren’t retreating, they’re getting selective. linkedin.com/posts/thomasja…

US existing home sales jumped 2% in July to a 4.01M pace, the first rebound in months. Prices barely rose year-over-year, signaling affordability is edging higher. Pent-up demand is showing, with housing poised to shape both inflation and consumer confidence. #HousingMarket