“Foresight is real. Some people have it in spades. They aren’t gurus or oracles..., but they do have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold.” - Tetlock & Gardner in Superforecasting goodjudgment.com/services/futur…

“Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated.” - Tetlock & Gardner in Superforecasting goodjudgment.com/services/train…

Superforecasting is a skill. At Good Judgment, we teach individuals and teams how to make better decisions in uncertain times. Forbes recently spotlighted the methods behind Superforecasters’ success: 🔗 forbes.com/sites/robertbt… Next public workshop: 🗓️ goodjudgment.com/services/upcom…

How are predictions for US global health funding changing? Good Judgment's superforecasters are providing daily updates x.com/albrgr/status/…

“If it’s possible to improve foresight by measuring, & if the rewards...are substantial, why isn’t measuring standard practice? [T]he answer...lies in the psychology that convinces us we know things we really don’t.” -Tetlock & Gardner, Superforecasting goodjudgment.com/services/train…

“I believe it is possible to see into the future, at least in some situations and to some extent, and that any intelligent, open-minded, and hardworking person can cultivate the requisite skills.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. goodjudgment.com/services/train…

As expected for some time by the Superforecasters and more recently by the CME futures, the Fed paused again in May. For June, the Superforecasters have had high odds for another pause with the latest forecast at 70%, where the futures have caught up with the Supers—for now

Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting®. Next workshop: 20 & 22 May 2025. Details: goodjudgment.com/services/upcom…

“Without revision, there can be no improvement.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. goodjudgment.com/services/futur…

🚗 How will vehicle tech evolve by 2025 vs 2027? Our new Vehicle Innovation Challenge is live! Forecast outcomes in EVs, autonomy, and more. Top forecaster wins a signed copy of #Superforecasting by Phil Tetlock. Join in: gjopen.com/challenges/119… #GJOpen

This week! Join our Superforecasting Workshop. goodjudgment.com/services/upcom…

“Nuance matters. The more degrees of uncertainty you can distinguish, the better a forecaster you are likely to be.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting goodjudgment.com/services/futur…

How fast will innovation drive the future of transport? Forecast what’s next in EVs, autonomy, and more in the Vehicle Innovation Challenge: 2025 & 2027. Winner gets a signed copy of #Superforecasting! Join the challenge: gjopen.com/challenges/119…

“Under- and overreaction to new information [are] the Scylla and Charybdis of forecasting. Good updating is all about finding the middle passage.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting goodjudgment.com/services/futur…

New on Good Judgment’s Substack: “Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Getting the Bigger Picture” open.substack.com/pub/goodjudgme… #Superforecasting #GoodJudgment

“Not all practice improves skill. It needs to be informed practice.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting goodjudgment.com/services/train…

“Like the mid-20th century creators of The Jetsons, [Superforecasters] don’t get every forecast right, but they tend to be less wrong than the average, including experts with nonpublic information.” - BusinessLIVE businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/202…

“Forecasting is not a ‘you have it or you don’t’ talent. It is a skill that can be cultivated.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting goodjudgment.com/services/upcom…

Hindsight bias fuels forecaster over-confidence. The cure: Remind & re-remind yourself of the deeply incorrect beliefs you once held about the future before you came to hold your current clearly correct beliefs about the future