The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) move through phases 4 & 5 will favor the chance for a fresh low to develop in the Bay of Bengal early next week. #India

ECMWF haftalık çıktılara görebu hafta yani 20–27 Ekim periyodunda troposferin üst seviyelerinde (500 hPa) belirgin negatif yükseklik anomalisi Avrupa’nın batısından Orta Avrupa ve Karadeniz çevresine kadar uzanıyor. Bu durum, kıtanın büyük bölümünde belirgin bir uzun dalga

No significant changes to this as things stand. MJO forecasts continue to favour progression through the Maritime continent with a substantial rise in AAM. i.E late November into early December remains a period of interest for colder weather patterns.

LATE NOVEMBER / EARLY DECEMBER It's always nice when a forecast begins to fall into place. I've spoken about this next MJO cycle and strong westerly winds in the Indian ocean associated with this are now beginning to work their magic. Friction on the sea surface is

Signals emerging for a busy start to Winter. The pattern could setup to be very active in the great lakes and NE. Especially for wintry risks as we see similarities to years like 2010.

THE BIG CHILL 🥶 Have you heard about the major pattern change NEXT WEEK? 🤖 This is how the AI Version of The ECMWF Model is showing it 💁🏻‍♂️Reminder this is NEXT THURSDAY and how long until we start seeing 'polar vortex' everywhere? 🤣 I doubt this will be precise and I am NOT

The latest forecasts for #LaNina into December continue to indicate cool neutral to WEAK La Niña territory. 6 of the last 8 years that fell into this territory for December ran colder than normal for the CONUS overall. 🚨We'll break this down in more detail in our Winter

Who's excited for #winter 2026/27? I ask because in 2025 we have yet another October where the #Siberian #snow advance gets a quick start at the waving of the green flag just to end up in a ditch. But as the say in sports: "that's why they play the game," nothing is predetermined

Potentially important trend in the Atlantic Ocean for winter N. Atlantic blocking prospects. Over the past month or two the AMO trend has been steadily more positive (vs. the negative state that dominated summer). Cool ENSO - Weak Niña winters with a +AMO (left) are much more

NAO and AO combined with ENSO and the corresponding temperature anomalies