I have a new #bankunderground Bank of England Research blogpost out with Dario Bonciani! We study how well a Bayesian VAR forecasts inflation in the face of large terms of trade shocks. Key finding: it turns out the VAR predicts the recent inflation spike surprisingly well if (1/2)

Happy to share my new WP published by the #BaselCommittee at the @BIS, joint with Renzo Corrias and Peter Welz. Our analysis, causally attributing banks’ window-dressing bhvr to attempts to arbitrage the #GSIB fwk, has underpinned the below consultation. bis.org/bcbs/publ/wp42…

🚨New working paper with Ida Hjortsoe 🚨 See the thread for a nice summary 👇

Summer has arrived in Cambridge and today participants are enjoying the The Janeway Institute 1st Cambridge Alumni in Macro (CAM) Conference Gonville & Caius College with a keynote speech from Prof Alan M. Taylor (Columbia University and Columbia | SIPA) #EconTwitter

📢New working paper📢 How do sales determine firms’ investment? Andrea Alati Maren Froemel Ozgen Ozturk & I estimate firms’ marginal propensity to invest. The main takeaway: sales matter for investment, in a ‘surprising’ way, as Catherine L Mann puts it. bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi… 1/n

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Extremely proud of my wonderful coauthor…now Dr Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo

🧵SWP 1077 by Edoardo Maria Acabbi (UC3 Madrid), Andrea Alati (BoE) + Luca Mazzone (IMF) outlines new evidence on human capital accumulation over the business cycle and its quantitative importance… bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/…

New draft of my paper with Ed Manuel

In SWP 1080 Kristina Bluwstein (BoE) + Alba Patozi (BoE) construct a new data set of macroprudential policy announcements for the United Kingdom and estimate their effects on systemic risk… bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/…

SWP 1083 by Tomas Key (BoE) and Jamie Lenney (BoE) explores how aggregate economic fluctuations (GDP changes) impact earnings and employment across different income groups in the UK. bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/…

Our working paper on firms' marginal propensity to invest has now also been released as a Bank of England Research SWP! Quick summary: Firms use sales surprises to learn about demand and adjust investment and prices in response. More below! #econtwitter Andrea Alati Maren Froemel Ozgen Ozturk

Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo has received the second prize for his PhD thesis titled “Essays on Macroprudential Policy, Tail Risks and Financial Stability” in the 2023–2024 Enrique Fuentes Quintana Awards. Congratulations! 🎉 #bdeResearch #PhDAward

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20452 Trading Blows: The Exchange-Rate Response to #Tariffs and Retaliations Daniel Ostry Bank of England, Simon Lloyd Bank of England, Giancarlo Corsetti European University Institute Economics at EUI ow.ly/lTSw50WpKVQ #CEPR_IMF #EconTwitter

The new version of our first year PhD Macroeconomics textbook is out. It is not polished yet but now all chapters are included. We hope it would be useful for the new semester. phdmacrobook.org/downloads/

🚨New paper+data with Lukasz Rachel🚨 ''Emissions-Adjusted Total Factor Productivity'' 👉Productivity growth>2005 is low in AEs📉 👉But CO2 emissions (trade-adj) are falling too🌳 👉Less climate damage 🟰 higher future consumption How can productivity stats account for that?