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Wobbles don’t hold a lot of value when you’re thinking 4 days ahead, but when it’s down to 4 hours ahead, the wobbles matter. These small track deviations could come with big consequences.

Hurricane #Milton truly doubled in size in less than 12 hours leading up to landfall. This evolution is pretty incredible.

Aurora over Boulder Colorado now.

The greatest error, however, was not with Milton's across-track (or landfall location) error, but rather with with Milton's forecast timing. At just 36-hour forecast lead time, the ensemble mean was **12 hours** too slow with the landfall timing.

Before anyone gets alarmed by GFS forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis in the W Caribbean, remember that historically there is model bias for TCs in this region in October. Always look for consistency in the valid time. A TC that stays at 7-day lead-time is "sus", as the kids say.

GEFS/GFS have a hurricane developing in the far south Caribbean next week. Right now, though, not much support from other models. Worth keeping an eye on, but this can be a bias in the GFS, so it wouldn't surprise me if this is a "ghost signal". If something were to form it seems

Weird level of excitement to find a place 10 minutes away that does tree limb recycling, with branch drop off, and mulch pickup, all for free.

This is crazy

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is currently actually less than one named storm above normal, or 10 days "ahead" of normal. It's what those normal number of named storms did that will make 2024 memorable, and verifies portions of the very aggressive seasonal outlooks.

2024 has spoiled us. I’m no longer interested in looking at any night sky that does not feature some rarely visible phenomenon.

A significant fire weather event will unfold Thu-Sat across portions of CA. This is a classic autumn setup, w/"inside slider" low pressure system generating strong, gusty, & dry northerly wind. Temps will not be warm, but vegetation remains very dry following record heat. #CAfire

Find me at bsky. I’ll continue to be active on both platforms for now.

Comparing accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) during the typical peak 30 days, to the total ACE excluding that period, for every Atlantic hurricane season. 2024, a clear outlier, had one of the quietest peak seasons ever, while achieving the 4th highest "off-peak" ACE on record.

My favorite part about finally having a rainy day in Colorado is watching obnoxious trucks that love to peel out, suddenly have zero traction on the road.

This map excludes about 50% of the snowy season in Colorado.

Friend just crossed the finish at the Ironman World Championship. He got food poisoning during the race, and crawled through the 26mi run. He’s an incredible force to watch at his best, but I’m most impressed by today. How you handle your worst days that reveals true character.

Giving out candy is a million times more fun than trick or treating. Maybe I was just born in my 30s.

SREF snowfall plume for Broomfield, CO. 0” to 78” with a mean of 30”. Okay then.

Thoughts and prayers for Colorado meteorologists as they try to communicate this 3-day forecast 😳

Ah yes, my four-year surge in high resolution geographic knowledge of the United States.