Some of Jay Powell’s tidbits from the Fed press conference yesterday. These are from a Q&A that came after a 25 basis point CUT in rates: >>It's pretty clear we have avoided recession; >>Downsides to the labor market appear to have diminished; >>There’s no reason to think a

2025: Cooking with Gas New Year prognostications are usually extrapolations from what recently transpired. Simply add 2-3% to the trend line and give some light analysis on why things will not veer much either way during the year. Such recency-biased price targets are not career

Part 2 (ENERGY) of 2025: Cooking with Gas A few of the largest energy focus areas heading into 2025 are: 1.) Capital Allocation Back to Basics; 2.) Trump Policy Impacts; and 3.) Datacenter Power Plays. Elections – not just in the U.S., but around the world – have turned “Energy

Our latest Market Missive "Drunk on Animal Spirits" One would have assumed that given the barrage of pronouncements coming out of the new Administration prior to even taking office, people would now be somewhat inured to them. However, it’s been quite the contrary as nearly

When Tariff Wars Get Real One part of our general thesis on inflation is the trend towards reshoring and near-shoring. One of the stated goals of the new Administration’s tariff policy is to prioritize domestic manufacturing. However, it is interesting to see where the specific

One very important development of late in the U.S. bond market has been the behind-the-scenes exploration of alternative solutions to the impending fiscal time bomb. While it may be too soon to discuss any of these thoughts in too much detail because, thus far, they have been

Our latest market missive "Risk Swap" with a little help from Grok on the picture. Enjoy! What appears to be occurring in the commodity markets is a shift in the risk that market participants are exposed to. Ironically, as geopolitical risks appear to be on the decline around

Supply Chain PTSD The beatings will continue until morale improves on the tariff front, with the newest point of contention being the copper sector. President Trump even went so far as to mention copper in his State of the Union address, implying that it will become subject to

Our latest market commentary: Consciously Uncoupling A good bar bet to make right now would be: Given that some put the odds of a recession in the U.S. at 50/50, how much is the Bloomberg Commodity (“BCOM”) Index down for the year? The answer is that it is positive for the year.

Our latest market commentary: Vibe Market - Not A Math Market Famed short seller Jim Chanos nailed the recent price action in U.S. capital markets when he said that we are still in a “vibe market, not a math market”. A vibe market is a momentum market, a FOMO market, a market

We bring up this comparison (AI / Copper Producers) not to show you how bubble-like prices are in the AI space, but rather to show you how overcapitalized the industry is becoming. Overcapitalization is key because extreme capital flows impair the underlying economics. It is not

While we don’t have a specific diplomat assigned to critical minerals, the U.S. Government is actively pursuing deals and offtake arrangements in highly critical minerals often as part of the diplomatic process. Goldman Sachs has aptly termed this “minerals diplomacy” and it is