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Walked into a Chinese supermarket tonight, knowing the "Made in China" stamp will have a USDA organic logo effect tomorrow.

To predict conflict outcomes, watch two things: 🟢ability to cause pain (to others) 🟢capacity to endure pain (from others) On US-China Tariff: Sect. Besset said China has a pair of two (weak hand), citing the US's 3x more import value than China. I'm afraid the truth is

Imagine if one sold most positions recently, raised 70-80% cash, and was "strategically positioned for the opportune moment." What does s/he do today?

This Braintrust style contributes to our current state.

A quality response to my "If you're 80% cash, what do you do today?" challenge. What you do at any moment should align with your investment system, following sound principles instead of ad-hoc ruthless actions. be measured, be disciplined while be flexible. It is hard, and

Curious what most think: In the 1st round of Tariff battle 🇺🇸 vs🇨🇳

I sold $BABA $TCEHY today. Not an easy one, as I often carry courage to double down on losing positions when needed, and $BABA is a multi-year $-losing position for me. Facing the US-China conflict, thinking through what card(s) each side holds, I conclude to sell. I could

Comments for the kill

Market Efficiency is a wild thing. e.g. $GLNG's 10%+ 📈today is just Horacio (YPF CEO) reiterating what he said in March and putting it in the ppt😂. He didn't even mention Golar's name. Does that mean another bump when $GLNG's name is officially announced? Based on today,

Tariff wars and the uncertainties we face today, in the short/medium run, are inflationary. (LT effect is debatable, and I exempted myself from engaging in it too passionately). Thus, "Inflation resistance" is a theme in my recent picks, from offshore drill fleet ( $VAL), FLNG

$USAS 📈~20% since the write-up on 4/3, while the market remains largely flat. I mentioned I had 40% of a full position and planned to add at three lower prices ($0.45, $0.4, $0.35) over the next 6-12 months. That was my plan. Then the Tariff crisis intensified, and in 3

Good to see some renewed interest in $PLAY One thing to highlight is its story pivot from: "We revamp everything to target 2x Ebitda to $1B/year" to "We stick to the basics, and content with $0.5Bn Ebitda/year". That's the message from the top last cc, who fired former CEO,

I recently sold $BABA. I outlined my thought process, covering the trade deficit, tariffs, US-China standoff, and how Chinese ADRs fits into the complex landscape. I received pushback esp. citing ADRs fungibility as delisting risk mitigation. I also covered that. Link in bio

This time, volatility is our friend, $USAS up 30% since the writeup 2w ago. Yet, the article has a low reading rate. A common pushback (w/o reading a line): "Isn't Junior Silver Mining just a gamble?"; It reminds me of $DB pushback I got in Y21: "Isn't Deutsche Bank

$1T+ Chinese ADRs listed in the US. How would the US play that hand in the US-China tariff standoff? 1. China represents ~40% US intl trades, holds $700Bn+ UST, and has $1T combined market cap listed in the US. 2. Each leverages its tariff, export limits, and other tools to

How could $MTN be just 10% above its 2020 COVID low?! This feels like screaming for a deep dive. What went so wrong?

$USAS reported strong exploration drilling results. tbf, detail is less important. The key is it enforces the thesis that the previously deserted Galena mine is a crown jewel asset, and with the right team and efforts, and , Galena won't disappoint. Since my 4/3 write-up

"Under the Hood" Portfolio Updates ✅Adding among weakness in $VAL $SEG ✅Riding Gold/Silver bull run with $ARMN and $USAS ✅Unlocked catalysts in $DLTR and $GLNG -> recent outperformance I also share a quick idea, ad-tech valued at 1x Ev/Ebitda (projected Y2025)! details