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Worrying possibility where you have shortages of US-produced goods like toilet paper once there are tariff-induced shortages, just as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Picture from the recent power outages in Spain

From Sentinel

Nice when my news feed includes forecasts and expert opinion. Sentinel remains excellent - GG Nuño Sempere now in SF et al!

Introducing… The Sentinel Podcast! After joining Sentinel, my favorite part of the week quickly became listening to the world-class forecasters make sense of the world and what dangers could be around the corner. I hope you also get to learn something from the way they think.

Sentinel podcast live! Get a sense of how our forecasters think about precursors to global risks

High alpha pod incoming

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every week Sentinel parses millions of news articles from around the world and has top forecasters make forecasts on the most important ones high value public service, recommend following

Satellite image of the Stargate project. It's huge. See a football field at the top right for reference.

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Weekly roundup of global risks 🧵

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~40% chance that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act, Musk 27% likely to significantly back a third party in the midterms.

Nice y'all docs.google.com/document/d/1jB…

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I vibecoded an Iran prediction market dashboard. If you need somewhere to check, it will hopefully do the job.