Nowcast expectations for month over month (annualized) December inflation has dropped from 6.5% to 2% just in the past two weeks. Nowcast for the Nov PCE release has dropped from 5% to 1.75%. Fed appears to be making a major policy error and will need to pivot

A Kansas City Fed report released today finds that corporate price markups accounted for over half of 2021's inflation. Markups grew by 3.4%, amounting to 58% of total inflation. The same year, U.S. corporate profits surged to their highest level since 1950.

Team transitory victory lap

The NFL Average Pressure Rate is about 33%. Here I adjusted PFF QB Grades to league-average, so that QBs with a very high pressure rate don't get penalized for having a bad OL/scheme.

We are long past the transitory, post-pandemic shock and inflation is below target.

SF and PHI Expected Points Added (EPA) Performance against Common Opponents, 2022. Averaged across a 120-125 non-ST snap game, 49ers by 18 (I don't believe the margin will be this high; just pointing out how much more dominant SF was against common opponents)

Are we really going to over-tighten and drive the economy off a cliff because economists don’t know how to properly model housing costs?

We’re past extremely transitory inflation It takes 9 months or so to be reflected in CPI, so we’re going to overshoot and probably have a recession

I’m sorry, I thought anyone who believed that the increase in inflation was due to anything other than excessive demand was a total crank

Evidence seems to be piling up marketplace.org/2023/05/31/wag…

inflation expectations completely collapsed over the past month - expectations are now below target through 2036, and are significantly below target over the next few years.

Using the Proxy Fed Funds Rate, which uses public and private borrowing rates and spreads to infer the broader stance of monetary policy, the US currently has its tightest monetary policy stance since 1982. frbsf.org/economic-resea…

I love it when economists tell Americans times are good because they’re working more hours for less pay.

There’s this new thing where progressives are bragging about being in charge of an economy that has barely grown in a fucking year, but everyone works more. Good luck w that message.

Real Durables Consumption = -0.75% of Pre-GFC Trend Real Nondurables Consumption = -11.5% of Pre-GFC Trend Real Services Consumption = -14.8% of Pre-GFC Trend

Real net consumption of durable goods is up ~85% from pre pandemic levels. I suspect this may have stressed supply chains

Rent in the Bay Area relative to all other services National rent relative to all other services

New NBER Paper: 75% of the vibecession can be explained by high interest rates

I guess I’ll do one 1. KC 2. BAL 3. JAX 4. NYJ 5. BUF 6. MIA 7. HOU 1. DET 2. SF 3. PHI 4. ATL 5. LAR 6. GB 7. DAL AFCCG: KC over BUF NFCCG: SF over DET SB: SF over KC MVP: Josh Allen OPOY: Amon-Ra St Brown DPOY: Nick Bosa OROY: Caleb Williams DROY: Jared Verse

Amount of people who didn’t watch the Simpsons is worrying