The problem with perma 🐻 is that they are willing to miss months of outsized gains to POTENTIALLY achieve the glory of having called the top. What's worse is that a lot of these people have large followings & leading their sheep to the slaughter. Large Acct =/= Market wisdom.

🥐stans, you will slowly begin to see/realize how bs these 🪟 are. Anybody know why we gapped down yesterday when it was the peak of "🪟 of strength?" Anybody know why we are trading up today when 🪟 of weakness started?? Be water. Always take credit, but Never be wrong.

Sorry just had to. Anyhow… Window is still open for downside to materialize, but it all rests on PCE now. Gl!

👀👀👀 Ready to learn over the weekend.

I didn't nail anything. I just don't call tops / go risk off just because of the [NON EXISTENT] 🪟 anymore. Too many people dm'd me two years ago when in the "window of weakness" in May 2023 - they missed a huge IT bottom on indices and even worse on NVDA.

Here's the biggest takeaway: NOBODY KNOWS A FUCKIN THING. We take directional bets based on the totality of information that we have. For the newbies that don't have own insights, you follow smarter people like ones I've listed. At the end of the day, it's still a bet/gamble.

When wrong, usually says: "As we've said, there's a window, an opportunity to take a shot to the downside. Doesn't mean market will go down." If market goes down, says "We were spot on." It'll be funny when we pullback/dip soon when + FLOWS (VANNA CHARM) come back.

ELI5 substack article on the FED coming tomorrow. So easy that this Regard (yours truly) is able to write it.

From the great NoProb There are four pillars for the stock market one must know: a. Liquidity b. sentiment/positioning c. fundamentals/valuations d. technicals Part one - Liquidity. ELI5 version. No explanation of QE/QT, just BASIC FED STUFF TO KNOW open.substack.com/pub/seneslulz/…

WHERE TF ARE VANNA AND CHARM? THOUGHT THEY COME BACK TODAY!!!!!! WHY DID WE GO UP IN THE WINDOW OF WEAKNESS AND GO DOWN TODAY WHEN VANNA AND CHARM ARE BACK FROM VACATION??? 🤔🤔🤔

Summer of George ELI5 for 🥐: -reference to George Constanza in Seinfeld where he loses his job -period of inactivity, doing NOTHING (he does the opposite of what he said he'd do) -in same way, 🥐says do opposite of MM's as volatility&volume are low. = Slow Summer grind up Tada

CPI may have been a bygone metric in last year or so, but I think the FED may have something different to say about that as tariffs' impact bleeds into the coming months' data. What the FED decides to do with interest rates&balance sheet = ⬆️OR⬇️ liquidity. Next date: July 15.

Read this

All four of my "must follows" are leaning toward a particular direction (not TODAY). While red day guy and 🥐are leaning opposite.

If you missed the April bottom, sucks to suck. But an opportunity MAY be brewing in the near future with CPI next week. How convenient that it's 🥐fav "VIXperation" the next day. It's almost as if VIXperation by itself is pointless and it's about the data that falls on the date.

Vol bid CPI. If nothing burger, then bears fukt. Seriously.

Says that as vol is compressed in the Summer of George, indices are relatively "pinned." However, there are still asymmetric risks present in diff market sectors. Uses the above to state that in broad indices - while one constituent goes up, another constituent must go down.

People are going to see this and say things like "haha just like your iron dome!" "Stop trying to time the market!" Oh you have yet to learn... He did say don't short. If you're a retail newbie like me, why bother short? Stay long, have some dry powder for potential pullback. EZ

$AMD Offloading some bags here. Derisking just in time for CPI next week. Who knows what happens? Pullback? Keep rocketing? NOBODY KNOWS. If pullback, great. I get to leverage more. If not, I'm still long. Not shorting this strength in semis though w/ $NVDA at ATH's.