Epinowcast 0.3.0 now released with code contributions from 15 community members.

Some exciting new features (e.g. non-parametric nowcasting), improved documentation, and lots of work on package infrastructure.

github.com/epinowcast/epi…

On #InternationalWomensDay we invite contributions to a special issue of Epidemics co-edited with Paula Christen, PhD on research culture in ID modelling tiny.cc/IDEculture. Also, here are (again) my thoughts on being a woman/minority in academia tiny.cc/SIRorMADAM

🎓 Interested in a #PhD involving mathematical modelling, analysing data sets & using interdisciplinary approaches?

✍️ Applications open for 4-year funded PhD studentships starting July 2024 Warwick MathSys CDT!

🗓️ Deadline: 01 Apr 2024

Projects & apply🔗: warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/mathsy…

This is now!

This is in 20 minutes!

This is today and should be really interesting!

Tomorrow at 3pm UK time we have Tomás León speaking at the #epinowcast seminar on:

CalCAT: Past, Present, and Future for California’s Use of Infectious Disease Modeling in Public Health Response

epinowcast.org/seminars/2024-…

Exciting new work in #ecologicalforecasting from my PhD student (authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S03….). We use Bayesian Dynamic GAMs to model time series of captures for desert rodents. A short thread:

Reminder that this is today at 3pm UK time!

Job opportunity! 'Research Associate in Mathematical Epidemiology' - come and work with our friendly team on the relationship between community viral prevalence and disease burden in vulnerable settings.

jobs.manchester.ac.uk/Job/JobDetail?…

At our next community seminar (Wednesday 14th at 3pm UK time) we will have Chris Overton talking about nowcasting Mpox in England in 2022.

The seminar is delayed from today!

community.epinowcast.org/t/community-se…

The CFA Stan wastewater modelling project led by Kaitlyn Johnson (she/her) now has a nice open repo and methods writeup:

github.com/CDCgov/wastewa…

Looking forward to seeing how this does in the COVID-19 forecast hub and more generally as we do more work on it

The world will soon know whether BCG revax prevents TB infection

Critical. But what we really need to know is whether it prevents disease

'Run a Ph 3 PoD trial' I hear you say

Spot on, but no-one will pay for it

So what do to?

Thoughts in Lancet RM: t.ly/rHxcI

The docs for {targets} are so inspiring. Really amazingly clear and useful.

books.ropensci.org/targets/perfor…

Our examination of modellers' working practices during COVID-19 is now out in WellcomeOpenResearch.

Frustratingly, I think it's at least as relevant now as when we conducted the work ~year ago. Let's make it obsolete.

wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/9-12

Anna Carnegie💖 Yang 刘扬 Sam Abbott (@[email protected])

Useful new paper on estimating delay distributions during epidemics by Sang Woo Park, Sam Abbott (@[email protected]) and co: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Below point is key one I think for simple methods - either you use more of your data and (often) introduce bias, or use less and get more uncertainty.