Thought-provoking talk by professor Roger Flage on the concept of ‘real risk’ in risk analysis (risk science) contexts at the SRA Annual meeting in Washington, D.C. 10-14 December. His main conclusion was that we better avoid the term real risk as it ambiguous and can be

And of course forgot: Hayley U-M Industrial and Operations Engineering U-M CEE Michigan Engineering University of Michigan

We had a very lively panel discussion on Risk science and Politics at the SRA Annual meeting in Washington, D.C. 11 December, see introduction slides by the panelists Seth Guikema, Robyn Wilson, Felicia Wu, Marja Ylönen and Terje Aven: drive.google.com/file/d/1KpvNi7… Here are some main

Otterpilot bots in your Zoom meetings? They can be set to log into all meetings in a person's calendar, transcribe the meeting, and send this to everyone invited, all without the user even attending. Zoom offers no sound way to block it. Great privacy policy Zoom .

Ice storm. Local schools: closed. Government offices: Closed or delayed opening. University of Michigan? Open. Outlying roads are an ice slick. Risky drive in for faculty, staff, and students in outlying areas. Sidewalks on campus not fully salted. Good risk management decision @UMichPrezOno?

Winter bike commuting in Michigan. Invigorating way to start the day. Of course it would help if the county, city, and university would work on treating the roads, bike lanes, and bike paths.

Flying through Dulles Airport (IAD) ? Leave lots of extra time. Just experienced the slowest, most disorganized TSA security screen process I've experienced in a long time. Zero line entering security and it still took 40+ minutes to get through!

Happy to see a paper with Elnaz Kabir and Steven Quiring come out in Risk Analysis today - Adaptive Bayesian ensemble learning. doi.org/10.1111/risa.1… U-M Industrial and Operations Engineering U-M CEE Engineering Technology & Industrial Distribution

Relaunching the web site for the Center for Risk Analysis Informed Decision Engineering at University of Michigan today: craide.engin.umich.edu. Kudos to Kate Kusiak Galvin for all of the work on this! U-M Industrial and Operations Engineering U-M CEE Michigan Engineering

Kudos to Osprey Packs, providing a lifetime guarantee on packs. Just had a second pack repaired (for free) after many years of cycle commuting use. Standing behind products and repairing them greatly reduces waste going to landfills. Avoid the throw-away culture!

Registration now for the Symposium on Risk Analysis, AI, and Autonomous Systems hosted by University of Michigan RAIDE. Open to industry, faculty, postdocs, and PhD students. April 15-16, in-person only. RSVP at craide.engin.umich.edu/events/ MICDE, Michigan Institute for Data & AI In Society, U-M CEE, U-M Industrial and Operations Engineering, Michigan Engineering

Our paper on AI for risk analysis has been published! doi.org/10.1111/risa.1…. Assessment of the use of AI for risk analysis and what its potential - and risks - are for use in risk analysis. Dealing with uncertainty is key, and AI currently does this poorly U-M CEE U-M Industrial and Operations Engineering

This is the nicest after-security waiting area I've seen at an airport. Greenville-Spartanburg Airport, SC. GSP Airport

Training AI/ML under uncertainty? Try proper scores rules to get better predictive distributions. doi.org/10.1080/004017…. Great to be part of this new Technometrics paper led by Dr. Shashaani. Uncertainty matters. Don't ignore it! Risk science U-M Industrial and Operations Engineering NC State Industrial and Systems Engineering U-M CEE.

Trying to get home today on United Airlines . Yes, there was a system outage not airlines fault. But United Airlines, that doesn’t excuse an inability to help customers. Phone help line overwhelmed and telling people to use app. App overwhelmed and hangs. Gate staff left. Here we sit.

Managing risk to achieve system resilience. So critical. Yet the Crowdstrike/Microsoft failure has laid bare just how fragile many of our critical systems are in the face of IT failures. Recovery mode? Struggling, just like Windows at ORD this morning. United Airlines Microsoft

Moved into my new office in my new home department at University of Michigan today - Civil & Environmental Engineering. Happy to become more of a part of the U-M CEE community and work to build our new grad program in Hazards, Risk, and Resilience.

Quite the contrast. Woke up in a tent covered in frost at 28F this morning while camping with Scouting America. Tonight? INFORMS conference in Seattle. Two hours at home to hang the gear to dry and head to the airport. Never a dull moment. And I wouldn't change any of it.