So we made about $40k so far on the Portugal predictions on Polymarket , and another $15-20k coming soon... What should be our next move ? Stoically reinvest ? Bounce to Greenland to interview locals on Trump's stance ? Party it up in Paris ? Or spend $ and enjoy African Safari

Going to do a live meeting with two very smart prediction experts in about 40 minutes!

Livespace w/ Ivan — Predictions & Current Events and ice was fun, thanks to both! If anyone hasn't seen the video I referenced that Team Scottilicious did on site re. Portugal's election, it's right here: youtube.com/watch?v=QBIeT0…

So the team ended up deciding on Paris and an African excursion instead of going to Greenland. Here's why: -- A man needs rest and time to enjoy life and mull the next steps. Should we just stick to managing our own money? Create more partnerships, a hedge fund? Who knows? --

Watching these guys' video makes me wanna buy back some No Greenland shares lol 😂... youtube.com/watch?v=d1ln5P…

As a prediction expert it’s my job to predict things and remain as unbiased as possible. I have political leanings, but I try to avoid blasting them. Right now I’m somewhere in Africa almost completely detached from normal work, yet with recent events in Minnesota and clowns like

This is a really solid article on many of the factors influencing a potential shutdown. My intuition is there will be one and so I’m currently a yes on polymarket.com/event/another-…… but I could change my mind at any time and it’s risky! Not financial advice! thehill.com/homenews/senat…

They’re negotiating, but with polls saying that about 2/3 of Americans think ICE has gone too far, I predict the Democrats will stick to their guns and demand end to masks. Biggest threat to my bet is a continuing resolution. Dems’ game to lose. We’ll see! rollcall.com/2026/02/09/whi…

Senator Kennedy R Louisiana says Dems will back a CR, don’t want to be seen as harming FEMA. But key Democrats say they can’t in good conscience continue to fund DHS. Will they back down? Context of popular opinion favors Democrats, so I say not this time. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

I’m up about 20k on this … polymarket.com/event/another-…… The whole issue of bias in prediction markets is super interesting. As I was buying up shares in the 50s and 60s, I kept wondering whether I wasn’t letting my bias that the current administration is out of touch and

An excellent example of crazy tail risk, a variety most wouldn’t even dream of… My strategy to avoid the tail risk was going to be to sell everything before the deadline. I exited about a quarter of the position way ahead of time getting ready to exit rest in morning and then

On Polymarket right now, if I'm gonna "bond" with new money, I think I would rather put $ on no Starmer exit by end of Feb: polymarket.com/event/starmer-… than on the Fed nomination because at least I have a finite resolution date! Which means a better APR! risky not financial advice