1/ Some thoughts on recent results in the stock market. If you are an investor (as opposed to a speculator) remember that you are buying partial stakes in *businesses.* Would you be comfortable owning the business for years to come if there were no stock price?

Spreadsheets for the win.

Massive labor market report with everything the Fed DOES NOT want to see: - Huge beat & prior numbers revised up too - Hourly earnings up (wages picking up) - Labor force participation rate down (less labor supply) A ''data dependent'' Fed now has to be very, very hawkish.

Costa Elena Bay Villa dwell.com/home/costa-ele…

Not enough people are talking about the collapse in natural gas prices. European next hour Dutch TTF nat gas is now *negative*. Henry Hub (U.S. nat gas) has been cut in half over the past two months.

From Apollo’s Torsten Slok: current market pricing says that for the Fed and the BOE, most of the work is done with raising rates. #Fed #BoE #ECB #BoJ

Today’s march in #Mexico City in defense of the country’s national autonomous Electoral Institute, @INEMexico. The president wants to eviscerate, emasculate and weaken it. Photos via El Universal. #INENoSeToca #YoDefiendoAlINE

1/6 The risk of a false dawn in US inflation. Headline inflation is likely to decrease sharply over the next few months. The reason is simple: Many of the large increases in commodity prices have started to reverse.

Adebayo Ogunlesi, founder of Global Infrastructure Partners. "When I decided to start GIP I went to see Henry Kravis. 'I’ll give you two pieces of advice. Any fool can buy a business. It’s not when you buy that you celebrate. It’s when you sell at a profit."

As people come to terms with the weight of our new environment, they are slowly beginning to realize how radically things have changed. One area in particular that has changed - the required level of "corporate performance" needed to simply survive (let alone thrive). 🧵

The core PCE index rose 0.3% last month, lowering the 12-month inflation rate to 4.4% (vs. 4.7% in Nov and 5.1% in Oct) +2.9% at a three-month annualized rate (the lowest since Jan '21) +3.7% at a six-month annualized rate (the lowest since Mar '21) wsj.com/articles/consu…

1/8 Debt ceiling update. All signs point to more time than June 1. So, the market does not believe Yellen about this date. If this is still the date, she can no longer just say it. She has to show her homework. 🧵

Here’s what Charlie Munger has to say about valuing companies:

bondvigilantes.com/blog/2023/05/d… #bondvigilantes

The four Mercosur presidents gather & they can't agree on a simple end-of-summit statement Remember this next time you hear grandiose words about a common currency, Latin American integration, etc. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… story by Martha Beck Bloomberg Politics

This is Rick Rescorla On 9/11/2001, the Vietnam veteran was working as VP of security for Morgan Stanley in the South Tower. In the months leading up to the attack, Rescorla sensed something would happen, he just didn’t know when so he prepared a plan. On the day of the attack

I'm in a contrarian state of mind today. I think the job market is not as strong as the headline payroll number suggests. Here's why. 1/ First, household employment was only up 86,000, and adjusted to payroll concept, was actually *down* 7,000.

Charlie Munger, investing genius and Warren Buffett's right-hand man, dies at age 99 cnbc.com/2023/11/28/cha…

A key point to keep in mind as investors start to discuss forecasts for 2024. Economic conditions can change quite rapidly - the current picture (above average GDP growth, low unemployment, etc) isn’t atypical for this stage in the Fed’s tightening cycle. linkedin.com/posts/francois…

Three charts on CAPE vs. P/B. 2007, 2009, and today. Via Norbert Keimling at taunustrust.de