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NYC pro commuter tip: the AC always works in the middle subway car the conductor is on

Lennar co-CEO John Jaffe: "we have had no impact to date on our costs from tariffs" Commentary date: June 17, 2025

over their dead bodies

my barber raised prices significantly

and it was unanimous

"recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace." Really? Since the last FOMC meeting, economic data surprises have been unambiguously negative.

don't forget to ask him a question or two on how they're dealing with deteriorating data quality

"The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures" - Powell

Microsoft is planning to cut thousands of jobs, particularly in sales, as part of the company’s latest move to trim its workforce amid heavy spending on AI bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

"It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer. ... We're beginning to see some effects and we do expect to see more of them over coming months." - Powell

Powell: "I've had a lot of experience with headcount reductions"

"Having really good data on the state of the economy at any given time is a huge public good ... I hate to see us cutting back on that ... I would want to keep investing in that, you know, for the good of the general public." - Powell

"There's not a lot of layoffs, but there's not a lot of job creation. If you're out of work, it's hard to find a job. But very, very few people are being laid off at this point. So that's an equilibrium we watch very, very carefully." - Powell

My column this week is about Nothing Ever Happens, and why it makes sense as the animating force of the equity market

Whenever you see a major geopolitical event that seems world-changing, ask yourself a crucial question: what does it do S&P 500 earnings 12 months from now? The answer is, rightly, almost almost nothing.

Now down 98% since this post on Jan 19...

Drink extra water today

you know what’s great? waking through a shopping mall

Don’t miss it 👇👇

Remember the Deepwater Horizon disaster? Remember how long it took to cap that wellhead? Wrong. It was way longer than that. Three months. It was so hopeless they were taking suggestions on how to fix it from literally anyone