Yup, 0-3km SRH is roughly 150-200 with a supercell composite of 2-4. LCLs are low at around 500m. Storms will be rotating but the question remains if anything will produce. How much instability materializes is the main factor in that equation. Weak TOR somewhere possible.

Revisiting this tweet from yesterday at noon. Looks like there was indeed a focused corridor of 6-9” of rainfall today in South Florida. Luckily this time, the placement was just south of the urban core and just north of the northern Florida Keys. Boundary pinned convection.

Spoke too soon last night, looks like final totals in that corridor were 8-13” of rainfall. Elsewhere far less totals of 2-4”

Revisiting today's marginal risk across the eastern half of South Florida: Latest mesoanalysis indicates high SBCAPE, 30-40 kts of bulk shear, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, as well as 1000-1200 J/kg DCAPE. Parameters are favorable, now we wait for storm initiation.

The 15z RRFS A (prototype) shows initial isolated convection along the sea-breeze before widespread initiation just to the west of the east coast metro, with activity drifting to the southwest due to light NWrly background flow. Isolated strong/severe gusts & small hail possible.

A quick look at our mesoscale "players" as of 2pm across South Florida. Two sea-breezes, a weak front, and the Lake Okeechobee cloud shadow. A lot of cumulus congestus out there but no sustaining updraft thus far, looks like it will be a later start to storms just as forecast.

Good quick read from SPC on what may transpire over the next several hours over the eastern half of South Florida. Multicellular "pancake batter" will percolate in a couple of hours across the area.

The RRFS A actually did a phenomenal job with the evolution of storms across South Florida yesterday. Here is what the 9z run has today. Also pictured is the 00z HREF LPMM hinting at a marginal flood threat and the latest SBCAPE analysis. Notice that the CIN is eroding.

Bit of a tricky forecast on the midnight shift overnight. A dual concern of marginal severe and flooding. I see ingredients already that indicate that a few strong to severe storms are in play once again today. The flood threat is a little more complex to gauge at this time.

Video of severe warned thunderstorm in Wellington, FL - sent from a friend. Gusty winds and small hail falling. #flwx NWS Miami WPBF 25 News WPTV

Impressive footage (for South Florida standards) from earlier today: Severe downburst (Straight Line Winds) and large hail associated with the North Perry/Pembroke Pines storm.

Sneaky wind threat for South Florida tomorrow as a squall line moves into the area. It’ll depend on timing and how much daytime heating occurs. HRRR forecast soundings shows good mid-level dry & speed shear. Flood threat perhaps on Sunday as a 2nd line of storms back-builds.

Looks an earlier arrival time with the line, which may act to limit the strong/severe threat for South Florida. Parameters still appear to be favorable for one or two isolated strong gusts, especially if a line segment is able to orient itself orthogonal to the shear vector.