The manufacturing boom that started under the Biden administration is grinding to a halt under Trump.

Seriously staggering stuff here. 1/

"Most of what happens comes from external shocks" is a sentence to be studied for the ages. "External" is a choice made by you, the researcher. If you want to know about the world, you have to study the things you think are important, not just label them "external" and move on.

Good news for US consumers that President Trump has now exempted imports of smartphones, computers, hard drives, computer processors and memory chips from “reciprocal tariffs” (so they won’t face the 10% global tariff, or the extra 125% on China) It’s also a win for Apple,

Made a little short on OLS, promoting my longer video about orthogonal projection: youtube.com/shorts/OFZHhce…

Why am I making videos about OLS? I'm just not an empirical guy, I'm a theory guy, that's just my personality and I'm learning to accept it. So, learning statistical theory in detail is how I'm reconciling that, and trying to get more comfortable with data.

They'll do it first to immigrants, then to prisoners, then to dissidents

To say "let's eliminate due process for the bad guys" is to fundamentally misunderstand what due process is.

You will miss liberalism when it’s gone. You have no idea how privileged we are to have lived at the time we did, when being apolitical was an option. We’ve spent so long criticizing liberalism that we’ve forgotten that there’s something much worse waiting in the shadows.

We really did it. We took a growing US manufacturing economy, declared it broken, started a trade war, and ... broke US manufacturing. In last 48 hours: - Philly Fed Survey: "New orders fell sharply, from 8.7 in March to -34.2, its lowest reading since April 2020" - NY Fed

This is not the time for price controls. End the tariff inferno instead.

There is a simple reason why China is in the stronger position compared to the US in this trade war: It is much easier to create demand domestically in the short run than it is to rebuild the workshop of the world.

The psychological dynamic here where they can never admit they've made a mistake means the tail risk of some very bad outcomes is much higher. They're just going to keep doing whatever they're doing until things get **really** bad.

Which do you find more interesting, or more worthwhile to try to explain? a) Fiat money is effectively a form of government debt b) Government bonds are effectively a form of money

I think there are two things (1) a society that doesn't know how to build stable relationships can’t build stable democracies and (2) we are being run by resenters - people who despise the system *are* the system and policy becomes a stage not to build, but to externalize pain.