If you're enjoying the briefings and seat previews, I would really appreciate some help giving this a push today, given that I'm still locked out of my main account.

Sam's Newsletter is good value normally. However, the bumper content during this election means the bang for your buck is so ludicrous, they're likely to be critiqued by the IFS.

This, is as always, good from Sam Freedman, we don’t always agree on stuff, but on the tory southern discomfort we do fwiw I think, see my thread on Kent seats, he is still slightly behind on a couple of seats but read his substack and make your own mind up

Sunak was visiting Horsham to campaign today Conservative majority 21,127 It’s 68th on the Lib Dem target list

Sunak may have left the D-Day event early but at least he thinks the right side won.

Apropos of nothing, which pollsters initially prompt for Reform UK? Summary of how many parties are included in each pollster's initial voting intention prompt below.

JLP show same movement to Reform as others. This is the first fully post D-Day poll and doesn't show too big a drop for the Tories (though is the methodology that helps them most and they're on 24%).

Without their house adjustments this would be: Labour 43% Con 22% Reform 14% LD 10% Green 5% Similar to average.

Back on the other account again. Join me there at @samfr....