Whether states like France or Germany want to be Russia’s enemy is irrelevant. As long as the Russian govt has existential reasons to frame the West as the enemy, there’s nothing the West can do about it except decide whether to resist or capitulate to Russian aggression.

5. Western govts therefore need to recognize that European security is a priority again, and that comes with a significant financial cost, including for those NATO members that have engaged in free riding for decades.

The alternative (trying to force Ukraine into a settlement so Europe can go back to business as usual) will only defer and increase costs, because Russia has defined itself against an enemy West. Western govts need to communicate this to their citizens, however unpalatable it is.

6. Western govts and media need to recognize that this is a major war and that major wars are long and complex and expensive. There will always be defeats as well as victories.

These things are inconvenient for electoral and modern news cycles, but successful outcomes depend on recognizing them and explaining them clearly to people who understandably want the war to be over.

7. The capacity to determine the outcome of the war - a pivotal moment for European security and global stability - rests with the West: both the US and Europe.

The Russian govt understands this, which is why it’s working to undermine Western commitment and cohesion. The West needs to understand it, too, and develop a coherent, common strategy for combatting that interference.

8. Russia and the US will both have presidential elections in 2024. Only one of these will matter.

The election of Trump, or another candidate who shares his dislike of NATO and his admiration for Putin and other autocrats, would be the most destabilizing international event for decades. It would make a wider war in Europe more likely and would further weaken the US itself.

American political elites, analysts, and voters with any concern about the security of their country, their allies, and the international stability on which the US depends, need to shake off the late-1930s-France-style fatalism visible in many people who should know better.

9. There’s no chance of negotiations that will end the war. Anyone in the West who thinks there is, doesn’t understand very much about the Russian govt (and needs to go and read Sam Greene) or its 30 year use of negotiations and frozen conflicts. twitter.com/ruth_deyermond…