USドルは強くない。円が弱いだけ。

Can we put Robin somewhere high up in the EU cabinets? The most clear-minded and data-aligned thinker out here.

Depreciation pressure on Turkish Lira comes from the current account deficit, where the trend isn't good. The goods deficit x/ energy and gold is widening and back to levels pre-BoP "sudden stop" in Aug '18. Turkey needs to get its current account deficit under control. It isn't.

RMB devaluation/depreciation pressures are a common FX market theme now, one presenting huge challenges for Chinese authorities and the US. How should the US and China manage the situation?👇👇 omfif.org/2024/05/china-…

Alemania 🇩🇪 sigue enriqueciendo a Rusia 🇷🇺 para financiar una guerra sin fin contra Ucrania 🇺🇦🥺🥺🥺

These days, the US has a run-away trade deficit with only one country: Mexico (black). That puts Mexico firmly in the crosshairs of the US election in November. Markets price nothing. Option-implied volatility in $/MXN remains very low. Complacency...

Correct! 👇

Agree with Robin here, and a nice chart Using real appreciation to fight inflation (crawl in TL has been below inflation) is risky as it makes it much harder to accumulate needed fx reserves + undercuts the desired adjustment in the current account.

Werbung für russlandfreundliche Energiepolitik:

1/ China’s FDI for Q1 remained extremely low (<0.1% GDP) I won’t go into the granularity of this data, already brilliantly explored by Brad Setser & Robin Brooks, but content myself with a few simple structural observations, beyond the arguments of deglobalization or not

Vietnam is a hub for transshipment of Chinese goods to the US. There's nowhere else where exports to the US (black) track imports from China (blue) quite as closely. If the Russians can figure out how to use Central Asia, the Chinese can certainly figure out how to use Vietnam...

When Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany had a choice: (i) act boldly with a full energy embargo to push Russia into financial crisis, which might end the war quickly; (ii) act timidly and focus on protecting industry. Germany was timid and now German industry is stagnating anyway...

The Thames Water 💧 debacle, covered for years by gillplimmer for the Financial Times, is now being debated in Germany, following a report by Sascha Zastiral for DER SPIEGEL. (1/7) spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unt…

There's now 13 EU sanctions packages on Russia and this is the reality. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shone a light on how the EU works and it's bad. The EU doesn't need grand visions for the future. It needs people who make it transparent and accountable in the here and now.

Concetti che, ahimè, aveva già ampiamente illustrato in una live con Michele Boldrin e Alberto Forchielli. Più che essere la #Russia ad aggirare le sanzioni, sono le imprese europee ad aggirarle. Schifo

Devastating. The EU either doesn't believe it's in a war for its survival or doesn't care and sees it as an opportunity for some quick profits. Right now it's mostly at Ukraine's expense, but the price will keep going up.

The failure of the EU to really sanction. Imagine if they had done correctly and quickly? Could they have broken’s Russia’s back? With its failure, now have Putin’s threats on NATO countries.

For Dummies: How to bypass your own sanctions and get away with it.

And this is how the E.U. helps Former President Trump get reelected. The EU is making isolationism highly attractive to US voters. I cannot tell you how disappointed I am with Poland.