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Do Hedge Funds Cause Coffee Prices to Surge? open.substack.com/pub/ralphjerry…

“Part of learning how to trade is losing money because you learn what not to do. If I want to lose money, I mean, that’s my right as an American.” Matthew Tuttle bloomberg.com/news/features/…

Trend Followers 🕺 "They only show up after the party has already peaked." Value Investors 💰 "They arrive early, complain everything’s overpriced, and leave disappointed no one brought discounted chips." Quants 📊 "They optimize party entry and exit based on foot traffic data

"If an investment manager's strategy has changed, if they’ve deviated, if they’ve gone a little bit off piste, then that’s more of an argument for exiting than poor performance." toptradersunplugged.com/podcast/the-qu…

"Poor performance should be expected from everyone from time to time. Otherwise, you’re running a bit of a Madoff, or a Ponzi-type scheme." toptradersunplugged.com/podcast/the-qu…

Stock index futures have shown unfavorable correlations and have been a poor vehicle for capturing the most profitable trends over the past two decades. This has contributed to CTA-trend-following underperformance. If only there were a better way....

"An intense and complex derivatives strategy can make you sound brilliant and bring in buckets of fees, and also be the opposite of what a client needs. It’s common to default to what sounds the best, the most intelligent, and the most complex. People drift from practical

“One of the hardest parts of the investing industry is statistical time is very different than business time. This was a bad 30 yrs. It was half of what a back test says it should have been. Half a back test is often what we hope for. No one is as good as a back test.”

"There's a whole industry of people, particularly podcasters, who don't know jack about anything. But being disruptive, being edgy, being past edgy to the point of gross is actually their brand." open.spotify.com/episode/7y20YX…

"Long term stock market wealth creation has historically been concentrated in a few firms. That degree of concentration has increased in recent years. There is no reason to think that will change in the future." Keep hunting outliers with classic trend following.

"Trend is the least bullshitty way of deciding whether I'm staying long or I'm getting out. You could have all these formulas and economic indicators that are subjective - price gives you everything you need. You're pulling in the sum total of all of those other things."

"Between 1985 and 2024, the average stock suffered a maximum interim decline of 81%, and more than half never regained their previous highs." Cutting losses and riding winners isn’t just smart—it’s survival. wsj.com/finance/invest…

Stock indexes mute the outliers. They’re designed for buy-and-hold, not trend following. If you’re hunting big outlier trends, single stocks are the better prey.