Quick new The Budget Lab post breaking down the distribution of the size of income tax cuts under the new tax law *above and beyond extension of existing 2025 law*. From this perspective, close to half of households will see a tax cut of less than $100.

It’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for….The Budget Lab’s final dynamic score of the OBBBA. TLDR: it’s still expensive, and will still slow growth, and will still raise interest rates…just even more than the House version 1/

President Trump says he is firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the weak jobs data. BLS puts out the jobs reports, CPI inflation, productivity and employment cost index, among other key statistics. This is basically unprecedented and will raise concerns about

The U.S. is the envy of the world bc of our high-quality govt data and trust it is not subject to political manipulation We are also the envy of the world bc of our indep central bank. And our commitment to the rule of law What took generations to build can be destroyed quickly

I would be very interested to hear from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Stephen Miran and others their specific concerns about the quality of data coming from BLS and how the administration plans to safeguard the quality of our gold star statistical infrastructure moving forward

The number of people who think that (a) it's easy to get accurate data in a timely fashion and (b) if there are revisions it must be "mistakes" or "faking data" is really worrisome. Let me explain. 🧵

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The prices of consumer goods are higher right now than they would be without tariffs.

“How would I feel about this if my staunchest opponent had this power” is sadly still too rare a mental framework.

Holy crap. Hang Cal Raleigh’s throw in the Louvre. Absolute dart.

New report this morning from The Budget Lab thinking through the challenges of distributional fiscal analysis when a policy is deficit-financed. We talk about the issues and present our preferred methodology. 1/7

Careers The Budget Lab is live! Looking for RAs and a macro researcher. Please see here: budgetlab.yale.edu/careers

Some professional news: Today is my last day full-time at The Budget Lab. It was an honor & a privilege to call the TBL team "coworkers" over the last 18 months. Intelligent, curious, & utterly collegial. What they've built & accomplished in so short a time is just stunning. 1/3

There are no words for how wonderful it has been to have Ernie Tedeschi at The Budget Lab. We are going to miss him terribly...although very grateful to have staying on as a nonresident fellow.

Join Josh Barro Natasha Sarin Cristina Rodriguez and Eric Van Nostrand for a The Budget Lab webinar on democratic institutions and economic growth - link below:

If you’d have told me a college football coach was willing to defend going around THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION for personal gain, I would’ve for sure guessed that coach won a hell of a lot more than one national championship

If you missed Cristina Rodriguez Eric Van Nostrand and me in conversation with Josh Barro about threats to democratic institutions and economic growth for The Budget Lab you can watch the full thing in the link below!

…because, the study finds, tariffs weaken the economy.

Two new tariff pieces from The Budget Lab this afternoon: The first is our usual report on the state of tariff policy, updated to reflect the new exemptions announced over the weekend. The second looks at what a "tariff dividend" would mean for the budget and inflation. [1/5]

The US Employment Situation, September 2025 NFP: +119K (62K 3MMA, -33K 2M revisions) U3: 4.4%