Partly thanks to this winter #natgas demand reduction the EU should not find it much more difficult than last year to replenish gas stocks this summer. Stocks currently at their second highest levels ever. #LNG will remain key though. Analysis here: tinyurl.com/5n83swbr

Dec-23 EUA contract crossed the €100 mark just now and hit intraday high of €100.70 #EUETS

One of the most astonishing charts from the energy crisis: a reduction of gas consumption in Europe of over 20% with no perceptible impact on industrial output across most countries.

Despite the #EUETS Dec '23 (carbon price) surpassing €100/tCO2e yesterday it was not enough to incentivise #coal to #gas switching for M+1. We were €3.11/tCO2e short. Extraordinary, and a timely reminder that gas prices still remain at elevated levels.

Coal-to-gas switching incentives for the baseload market hit a new milestone on 24 Feb with the ICIS TTF M+1 falling below the switching price for average plant efficiencies for the first time since 17 Jun '21. In theory, the average #gas plant is now more profitable than #coal!

𝐅𝐄𝐁 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑 #𝐋𝐍𝐆 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐬: 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞: Imports were 𝟖.𝟖𝐦 metric tonnes Europe held a 𝟐𝟔% share of global LNG imports, unchanged m-o-m 𝐀𝐬𝐢𝐚: Imports = 19.5m Held 57% share 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮: Imports = 0.2m Share = 1%

#China imported 11.2m tonnes of #LNG across Jan-Feb, down 5% y-o-y. Also 18% below '21 levels, which were highest ever In Feb it was the 3rd largest Asian importer: Japan first with 6.5m and South Korea taking 2nd with 5.1m. China = 5m Sign of things to come or slow start '23?

National Grid asks power plants to fire up before coldest night of year theguardian.com/business/2023/…

🚀The upward move in European carbon price continued on Friday morning with Dec-23 EUA crossing the €100/t mark again. Surging TTF gas prices/energy complex provided support #EUETS

MARCH 2023 #LNG STATS Europe: Imports were 10.4m tonnes, a 3-month high Europe held a 30% share of global LNG imports Asia: Imports = 19.1m Held 54% share South America: Imports = 0.3m Share = 0.8%

Germany’s last three nuclear power stations to shut this weekend theguardian.com/environment/20…

Current prices mean the least efficient #gas plants can compete with #coal in Q2 ’23! But clean spark & dark spreads are negative so little financial incentive to run thermal output now. It will be difficult for the most efficient gas units to remain competitive from Q4 though.

Gas is now so low that even the most efficient #coal-fired #power plants will struggle to compete with gas during baseload hours on a month-ahead basis. Remarkable turnaround – 4 months ago #gas was too high to trigger any fuel switching!

The premium of Q1 ’24 #TTF over Q3 ’23 has narrowed by over €4/MWh in the last week, ICIS data show. Sliding summer #natgas prices have finally managed to haul winter forwards lower, reversing a trend present since the start of 2023.

#TTF #natgas misnomer. "Although the idea is dubbed ‘joint purchasing’, the only mandatory element involved is the pooling of demand. Any purchasing is fully voluntary..." Free explainer from ICIS Gretchen Ransow icis.com/explore/resour…

Financial incentives for #coal-to-#gas switching in 2024 restricted to peak hours across #Europe Prices still too high for the least efficient CCGTs during baseload hours next year. Gas plant profits also under pressure going into this winter.

JULY 2023 #LNG STATS #Europe: Imports were 7.9m tonnes, a 4-month low Europe held a 24% share of global LNG imports #Asia: Imports = 17.6m Held 54% share South America: Imports = 1.1m Held 3% share

My first TV interview! Topics include: - #TTF movements in 2023 - EU industrial #gas demand - Europe's changing role in the #LNG market - ICIS view on gas stocks this winter - What impact the #power sector will have in H2 youtube.com/watch?v=UUzhYM…

APRIL 2024 #LNG STATS #Europe: Imports were 8.6m tonnes Europe held a 24% share of global LNG imports #Asia: Imports = 19.6m Held 57% share South America: Imports = 0.7m Held 2% share #natgas #TTF

Geopolitical developments boosted European spot #gas prices during April, but the market remains fundamentally bearish, with continued weak demand, high storage levels and a lack of #LNG import competition from Asia More details here: linkedin.com/posts/christop…