Last real hot day of the summer? Hopefully? Some isolated severe storms possible today with better rain chances through the weekend. Cooler/drier next week. patreon.com/posts/11100661…

I discuss the pattern, my September forecast, and a look at the tropics that could awaken next week. patreon.com/posts/11101038…

Best chance for storms in the Triangle may be after midnight. HRRR shows a line dropping south from Va between 2-4am.

Need to keep an eye on this tropical wave in the Atlantic. Models show it could develop in the Caribbean and COULD be a risk to the Greater Antilles/Bahamas at the very least down the road.

⛈️Strong to severe storms will be possible today across most of central NC. 🕓 Most likely - 4 PM through 10 PM. ⚠️Damaging wind gusts and localized flooding. #NCwx

Strong storms forming across the northern piedmont.

wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwa… Some Flash flooding likely in the area this evening.

Todays 12z operational models not excited with the wave in the Atlantic. Some EPS members still develop it, but any development is likely going to be slow and wait till the western Caribbean.

There is a Marginal Risk for both severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall across central NC. #ncwx

Certainly looks like this Atlantic hurricane season is going to bust low w.r.t seasonal forecasts. Eric discusses a few possible reasons why. Always a chance we could see an active 2nd half of Sep/Oct, but we will likely not come close to the aggressive forecasts including mine

the latest HRRR shows the main storms arriving in the Triangle this evening 8-10pm and rain lingering overnight. Isolated spots could get 2-4 inches of rain in this line.

2-4 inches of rain with these storms in the "hat" of Wake County

That little red spot in western Wake County stands out 😆

Some impressive totals around the Triangle. I ended up with 2.14 inches at my house here in southern Franklin County.

Here comes early Fall.

Nice job. I went with 1045, which wasnt bad but my spatial anomaly map left a little to be desired.

The Atlantic has had no named storm formations since #Ernesto on August 12. The last time that the Atlantic had no named storm formations between August 13 - September 3 was in 1968. The remarkably quiet period for Atlantic #hurricane activity continues.

Next Monday morning looks to be the coolest so far as we transition from the warm season to the cool season. patreon.com/posts/11146932…

Model guidance has come into agreement that this system could become a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days and potentially target the TX or LA coast. GOM states should stay aware of this for next week.

Most guidance takes #Invest91L (future Francine) just off the S Tex coast and then NE towards La. Best bet now seems strong TS to possibly low end cat 1 hurricane at landfall around Thursday. Be prepared esp if you live from Mobile Bay through the Texas coast.