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Airlines cutting estimates and weakness in retail suggests that economic weakness among consumers has been building for a while now. You are in recession when you think you are. It’s feeling closer.

The Fed not reducing its balance sheet is moral hazard. They don’t call it by its true name, debt monetization.

This roll out of private investment in the world of retail is, trust me, a bad sign for the valuations of these assets. This is something that happens only in toppy environments. It is as predictable as a change in seasons. Sponsors are just separating you from your $.

We are going to drag the world into a recession, which will create a market led by cyclicals and small caps. Big tech will, by contrast, look like a very expensive way to own growth. Lower market multiples incoming.

The tariffs didn’t begin the decline in the market. It had been underway for several months but it did accelerate it and may prove to be the tipping point into a recession we may well have been heading for anyway.

The FTC is out of their minds. Meta bought Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014. Neither were much of anything when Meta bought them. Either or both could have been massive capital destroyers. WhatsApp went a lot of years after the buy with no monetization.

Christine LaGarde is talking up the capital strength of European banks on CNBC. Why then does SocGen trade at 0.44% 0f book? How about DB at 0.51%. There must be a big misunderstanding here. Maybe she’s just full of it?

Dillon Gabriel is better than Sanders? Hard to get your head around that one. A pick at the bottom of the third round is more or less derisked.

I am thinking that these LIV guy’s don’t play enough tournament golf to be as competitive as they might have been pre LIV. Tournament golf is a different kettle of fish than playing at home.

If you see an asset manager talking up private assets you can be sure it benefits them more than you. If you surrender liquidity you need to be paid for it and not by a trivial amount. They like it because they get to mark asset price. Your BS meter should go to 11.

Private credit is great for the sponsors. Investors, probably not. Sponsors are greatly benefitted from not showing investors the real price. Low volatility = low redemptions = stable fees. You are making loans to, mostly to shit companies, at pretty low rates given the risk.

I bought a dozen PXG balls. I assumed they would produce a decent ball, they were far from cheap. They were like hitting nerf balls. Don’t waste your money.

With the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill I have concluded that the Republicans have evolved to become Democrats and the Democrats have become the lunatic fringe.

Private assets into retirement plans is the death of the idea. It’s kind of like a pizza. There is X amount of excess returns available in nearly any alternative idea. Cut it into 4 pieces it’s good. Cut it into 100 and it isn’t as satisfying.

Wow. I saw the Liz Warren interview on CNBC today. She is shockingly dumb. MA has two Senators lacking any common sense. This commie stuff has been tried a gazillion times and it always face plants yet they continue to think this time is the charm.

Shaduer Sanders and Jaxson Dart are really good. 9 or 10 days of camp!

You think management doesn’t matter? Think again. The NY Jets look like a different team.

Remember when John Robert’s ruled that a fee attached to the ACA was just a tax and Congress had the right to tax? Trump’s tariffs are likely to be seen as similar to the SCOTUS. It’s a tax and only Congress can an initiate a tax. That revenue generated from it is taxation.

That Synopsys offered nearly zilch in their earnings call to hold the stock. Major loss of confidence in management.

Half of the NFL game slate tomorrow is indoors tomorrow. The NFL is diminishing their brand. Football should be outdoors. The dome stadium trend is a money grab by owners. Mistake to destroy the authenticity of your sport. The Premier League won’t do it.