Interesting numbers in the CBS poll. Trump is +10 in approval with voters under 30.

The new DOGE "wall of receipts" said the government had saved $8 billion by cancelling one contract. It was $8 million.

We've done an online panel of German respondents which began in the late spring of 2022 and included a wave in late January/early February 2025. I inadvertently failed to include the AfD in wave 1, but you can see its growing support in subsequent waves.

Alternative version of the President map, by raw vote margin per square mile:

I remember reading about "peak populism in 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2023...

NEW: There’s a dire situation in Vietnam, at the largest Agent Orange spill in the country. When Trump and Marco Rubio cancelled foreign aid, froze funding and began dismantling USAID, those who were cleaning up the Bien Hoa air base had to halt work. 1/

A woman was assaulted at her job at a nursing home. She reported it to Michigan police. The police department alerted ICE, and now she's being deported.

One important thing to note. Yesterday's report had revenue at $3.009 trillion. Now, with the add'l 50% tariffs on China, it's $2.843 trillion. We've now flipped to the right side of the tariff Laffer Curve.

I have obtained new nonpublic data from ICE that shows that 2/3 of the people it had booked into detention facilities this fiscal year had no criminal convictions at all. Less than 7% have violent convictions. Most convictions were for immigration, traffic, and vice offenses.

Since some drama about the "current policy baseline" is clearly headed our way this week, may I recommend this piece decoding that boring but consequential language using metaphors and illustrations? nytimes.com/interactive/20… Alicia Parlapiano

We've updated our big, beautiful list of (almost) everything in the GOP bill. Link in reply, for twitter reasons. Alicia Parlapiano

Full-day kindergarten increases maternal employment rates.

Here's what's in the bill Congress just passed. More in my latest for New York Times Opinion nytimes.com/interactive/20…

This is really fascinating. Forest and grassland converted to crops in 19th cent. 20th cent urbanization. But also notice some re-forestation in TX and South East. After 1920, total forested land is fairly stable. This was a lot of fun to make. Data from Hanqin Tian et al.

Important piece from David Autor & Gordon Hanson about the next "China shock" and how to deal with it. nytimes.com/2025/07/14/opi…

Redfin: U.S. housing market now 508,715 more home sellers than homebuyers That’s the most home sellers have outmatched homebuyers in over a decade, according to Redfin

estimated drop in new international enrollment to american universities this fall: -30/40% (!) contributing to a 15 percent drop in overall enrollment - nafsa: association of international educators

CBO put out their final distribution analysis of the reconcilation bill yesterday. If you combine those numbers with the most recent The Budget Lab tariff burden estimates, you get a striking result: all income groups but the top decile are made worse off on net.

Or it might be that Spanberger is the right candidate for Virginia and Mamdani is the right candidate for New York City, and elements of both need to be present in whoever becomes the 2028 nominee.

I’m seeing a lot of fighting over this. I find it a bit weird. Ezra isn’t saying to run pro-life candidates in Michigan. He’s saying that if Democrats want to keep the GOP out of power, it means running candidates that don’t fit their platform on certain issues. That includes