At a minimum higher real rates. Probably more inflation at some point. Agree default is unlikely. But a forced fiscal adjustment with bad decisions about distortionary taxes and benefits seems realistic.

On CNBC's Fast Money, last night commenting on US debt outlook. I estimate US could probably still run a deficit of $800-900 billion (today’s numbers) without ever triggering a crisis. Is that too much fiscal responsibility to ask from our politicians? cnbc.com/video/2024/03/…

I was thrilled to be joined by Senior Vice Dean of Research, Centers and Academic Initiatives Joao Gomes as the #WhartonImpact tour stopped in Hong Kong. It was amazing to be in this international trade hub and surrounded by our close-knit community of Hong Kong alumni!

It is often said the US never defaulted on its debt. Not true. It did it under FDR and it certainly can do it again. press.princeton.edu/books/hardcove…

And, she adds, "economic and financial evidence is accumulating that the long-run neutral rate has likely moved up." R-star

Forecasting Non-Farm Payrolls Post-Pandemic Seems to Have Gotten Harder For Economists:

The housing market is largely frozen in "mortgage lock-in," explains The Wharton School professor Lu Liu to open our four-part Ripple Effect podcast series on real estate. Tune in to the full interview to learn what caused this trend and what could lie ahead: whr.tn/4blCBlj

The cost of servicing US government debt is on course to surpass defense spending:

"The pendulum has swung very strongly in favor of renting" over buying houses, says The Wharton School Prof. @Key_Z_E – and the trend is likely to persist. Watch Keys' full interview in the third episode of our four-part Ripple Effect podcast series on real estate: whr.tn/4aurKnx

#Fed rate cut might matter for one day. But their forecast for 2025 will hang over markets for the next 3 months. #FOMC #MarketUpdates

The ⁦The Wharton School⁩ quant finance getting a talk by ⁦Alejandro Lopez-Lira⁩ on his research of using Chat GPT to pick stocks. We’ll be talking to him on Behind the Markets ⁦SiriusXM Business Radio⁩ at noon. Prof Siegel debates Bob Shiller coming up next!!!

Longevity is a double-edged sword, argues Prof. Olivia S. Mitchell, Executive Director of the PRC Council, in IMF: whr.tn/3zokrl0 Prof. Mitchell spoke with the IMF about the importance of improving financial literacy and supporting healthy aging as life

The first event of the Policies That Work series hosted by The Wharton School will include Kent Smetters in a conversation with Professor Jeremy Siegel and moderated by Joao Gomes. Register here: whr.tn/3TE5kec

I am moderating The Wharton School's #PoliciesThatWork discussion with Kent Smetters and Jeremy Siegel on October 23. Learn about the series, and RSVP to attend either virtually or in person: events.wharton.upenn.edu/policies-that-…

I joined the Ripple Effect on Knowledge at Wharton to discuss the growing $30 trillion #NationalDebt crisis. Listen in here: knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/podcast/ripple… #Economy #Wharton

Whether you want to walz with Harris or vance with Trump, the upcoming #election will have significant economic impacts. Watch the conversation I moderated with Jeremy Siegel and Kent Smetters at The Wharton School for #PoliciesThatWork: youtube.com/live/i6WAS31qA… #Taxes #Debt #US #Wharton

With U.S. debt at historic highs, bold fiscal action is essential. In my FORTUNE op-ed, I propose two pragmatic paths to stabilize the debt and sustain growth. Read the full article: fortune.com/2024/11/22/dog… #NationalDebt #USEconomy #Wharton #TrumpAdministration

Today, The Wharton School gathers finance leaders to engage at the #FutureOfFinance Forum in Washington DC. Here, we navigate this transformative moment in global finance, discussing AI, digital assets, cybersecurity, and more. #WhartonFinance whartonfutureoffinance.com

Uma óptima explicação para muitos de nos estarmos no estrangeiro. Talento e capacidade trabalho em Portugal não são suficientes.

The last month should show to anyone that free markets are the true protectors of a well functioning democracy, and much more useful than the media or even an independent judicial system.