Didn’t expect Ben Affleck to have the most articulate and realistic explanation where video models and Hollywood is going

Alex Cole Since WWII, Democrats have outperformed Republicans on the economy. GDP growth averages 4.23% under Dems vs. 2.36% under GOP. Job creation? 1.7% yearly for Dems, 1.0% for Republicans. Also, 9 of the last 10 recessions started under Republican presidents. Data speaks louder than

Der Plan, jetzt im alten Bundestag nur die Militärausgaben (jenseits 1,x% BIP) von der Schuldenbremse auszunehmen und das Thema Infrastruktur auf später zu verschieben, wird nicht funktionieren. Damit droht das Gesamtpaket (spätestens im Bundesrat) zu scheitern und dann stehen

Bin nicht sicher, ob alle schon verstanden haben, in welcher Klemme Merz gerade steckt: ▪️Grüne bestehen darauf, das Wort "zusätzlich" in das Gesetz für die 500 Milliarden für Infrastruktur zu schreiben, damit daraus keine Wahlgeschenke finanziert werden. ▪️CSU und SPD sind

On appropriating the 200 billions of Russian assets, two separate issues: Whether this is creating a bad precedent. If the precedent is that, if you are going to invade another country, you may lose some of your assets abroad: I think we should not care too much about creating

Remember when Hillary's emails were a national security risk? Good times.

It is not so much the Trump tariffs, but the tariff policy uncertainty which is likely to affect world activity the most over the next few quarters. "Liberation day" is just the start. What will Trump do, to whom, and for how long? What will make change his mind, or not? How

Justin Wolfers If the tariffs encourage domestic production, they don't raise revenue. If they raise revenue, they do so out of the wallets of Americans.

Bottom line: Tariff escalation backfires hard. The US loses the most — on output, prices, and exports. This is not "reciprocity," it’s self-harm. 5/5

Yes, I should be doing something else than tweet today. 😟But there are so many important things to say that I cannot resist. Tentative advice to the European Union: Take your time to respond. Let cool heads prevail. If you think that Trump will not back down (likely in

This looks like a hit-and-run strategy: throw an ultimatum into the face of your opponent. If they cave, follow up. If they don't, retreat and reorganize. One at a time, you dismantle the order. Optimal response: build coalitions and don't cave.

Hard to understand the logic of those who argue it makes sense to worry about debt and deficits now, but there was no reason to worry last year or two years ago. Debt is a slow-moving, persistent state variable. Bond yields are anything but. And we've had two large

Interesting point. The willingness of everyone to buy your assets should be both reason to celebrate and to be very cautious not to overload yourself for the case someone like Trump takes office and you-the government and the people-being stuck with promises hard to keep.

Thread 🧵1/4 The terrorizing and expulsion of foreign students from U.S. universities may prove the most disastrous policy blunder in American economic history—and unlike a silly tariffs on penguins and others, it will be extremely hard to reverse.1/8

Reminds me of the trade-offs involved with climate policy, although with flipped long-term vs short-run gains. You want to address a pressing issue that benefits all at the expense of redistribution, disadvantaging some. There's no doing it "optimally" without welfare weights...

If the reason Iran must not have nuclear weapons is its hostility towards Israel, then military action might solve a problem for today in exchange for a bigger problem further down the road. A smarter approach must be taken to have Iran come to peaceful terms with Israel.

Let me talk today about 🧽 sponge cities. When I discuss fertility decline, I often get the following comment: “As the population falls, housing prices will also fall, which will help with fertility and the system will self-correct.” Perhaps not. As the population falls, we

This extremely Hayekian passage by Ken Arrow on the economic calculation problem is quite interesting: "Production and consumption decisions are based on the present and the future. Information about future goods includes their prices. But not all future markets exist. One must