Is that $OSCR eating $UNH's lunch?

$AMZN CEO: "Our AI business right now is a multi billion dollar annual run rate business, it's growing triple digit percentages year over year, and as fast as we actually put the capacity in it's being consumed"

For freight markets, 2025 is the sequel to 2020. It’s eerily similar to COVID. Freight market collapse in April, followed by a sharp rebound in June. Remember the 2nd half of 2020? We could be on the verge of the repeat.

It's time to mine. Critical minerals underpin hundreds of billions of dollars in downstream industrial output. For the U.S., this creates systemic vulnerabilities across entire sectors. Without secure access to these foundational inputs, the U.S. cannot fully execute its

Closely tied in with the US vs Global stocks rotation theme is the US Dollar. Global flows have been a key tailwind for US stocks (and the US dollar); this has resulted in a self-reinforcing loop. There are signs this dynamic is starting to reverse... which could end up driving

If Europe moves towards 401K-style default passive/target date fund model, ie shifting a sizeable fraction towards European countries, it will permanently impact "American Exceptionalism" This is important if followed.

1/8 The euro is up 14% against the dollar this year, as well as against the yuan (11%) and the yen (4%), driven by financial inflows rather than by economic fundamentals (i.e. higher relative productivity grown). bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Warsh: "we need another Treasury-Fed accord" The last time we had such an accord (in 1951), there was Yield Curve Control in the US. Clear what's coming.

Eccles didn’t like YCC, he reluctantly agreed to it under enormous pressure from the Treasury and White House.

🔥Hot off the press, JDI's July Report:🔥 "A brave new world...And it doesn't belong to Trump." Everyone blames Trump for killing globalization, but the world is quietly stitching itself back together – and Europe might just come out ahead. Find it at jdiresearch.com.

On April 30th, Josh Smith of Montana Knife Company said you won't have to worry about tariffs if you buy American. Last week, he realized his costs are going up bc he imports equipment and steel. And so do his suppliers. IMO many people aren't aware of how much they import.

Russia at the margin is unlikely to change the supply-demand dynamics for commodities

The UK and Norway share more than the North Sea, we have an unbreakable bond forged through history and common values. We've stood together for generations. Now Norway's choice of UK Type 26 frigates takes our defence partnership to the next level 🇬🇧🇳🇴 Norwegian Ministry of Defence

These are increases in "production ceiling" not actual production increases.

"... I don’t want to frighten off or disincentivize Investment into America by outside Countries or Companies. We welcome them, we welcome their employees, & we are willing to proudly say we will learn from them, & do even better than them at their own game." - President Trump

'Big Short' investor Steve Eisman : “AI is still the trade and the power part of the story is interesting.” Scarcity rents accrue to whoever can deliver electrons, not just GPUs. GS models +165% data center power demand by 2030. Nuclear + grid names already signing 10–20yr

Goldman's take on copper and $FCX #copper #fcx

$AA Alcoa CEO on how high U.S. power costs block smelter investment "We are now today competing with Amazon and Microsoft who are willing to pay over $100 per megawatt hour for power. But to run an economical smelter, we need to be down in that $30 range" $AMZN $MSFT

For those that follow me for macro economic intel. The excitement in trucking is not related to the macro economic story, it is a capacity one (low quality operators getting shut down). The macro economic story is bad. Trucking volumes are down 18% YoY and continue to weaken.