This week I stress-wrote a 4,500 word brain dump on polling, polling averages, models, predictions markets, early vote and more! If you or a friend are trying to make sense of the numbers, give it a read. Send any comments my way! capitolweekly.net/ca-120-underst…

There is likely nothing more confusing to voters than the avalanche of often-conflicting polls that spill forth every election year. Paul Mitchell offers a valuable guide to understanding how polls are conducted & presented to you, the voters. CA120 capitolweekly.net/ca-120-underst…

An important and haunting message from PDI. 👻

Always fun to join Edie Lambert and Ashley Zavala to talk elections and turnout and data.

Hard work over the weekend to get what county updates we could, and we have reached over 7 Million ballots in CA.

California passes the 8 million voter mark! And returns today have been decidedly younger. Early on, we had days were 48% of returns were Seniors, only 12% were 18-34. Now it's about parity for each. Look at the age lines converging on the second page with daily rates.

VP of ⁦PDI⁩ - ⁦Paul Mitchell⁩ on the early vote and what to expect today as votes roll in. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pol…

Keep focused today with a podcast featuring ⁦Paul Mitchell⁩ - all about the polling and data and early vote. Perfect for that mid-day lull… podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cap…

Huge 330k update from Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk - big increase of 30k ballots in #CA27 with George Whitesides vs Rep. Mike Garcia Big increase in young voters - 8,500 18-34 vs 5,200 Seniors.

Over 9 million ballots cast in CA. Nearly one million already this am as counties report day-of and in-person. Check out aggressive change in voting among young people (18-34) who are now beating Seniors on the EDay vote.

CA has 10.7 million ballots tallied with an estimated 5.5 million outstanding. The PDI tracker gives details on 11.6m of these. Check out the shares of party, age and ethnicity over time… late ballots are more Dem and Ind, Younger and Latino. Late voters shift results blue.

For those who want the explanation of why the later ballots in CA skew more Democratic, here is a quick snippet from the Capitol Weekly post-mortem.

Ok, lots of questions about how results have been changing in CA Congressional races as more votes are tallied. So, I created a new tool to help explain it, providing breakdowns by party, age, ethnicity and more. Here is a video to walk you through it. #CA45 #CA41

In other states, they’re packing up the campaign office in mid-November; in CA races are still being won & lost through organized field programs doing ballot signature “curing” that was unheard of just a few election cycles ago. Paul Mitchell CA120 capitolweekly.net/ca120-curing-c…

A new poll in the City of Irvine. Do people know about the upcoming special election? Do they know that it is only being held in District 5? Do they know that the state law would say that this election has to be held citywide? Memo: dropbox.com/scl/fi/qearaks…

Oops, we did it again. Polled 1,200 CA voters and had them again watch clips of the "This is Gavin Newsom" podcast, to get their open-ended responses and answer a few questions. capitolweekly.net/ca-120-is-news…