If we buy into Kalyvas’ (2000, 2004) canonical work on civil war violence, 🇮🇱’s indiscriminate bombing is related to how very poorly it’s informed about Hamas formations. Is this really the case? Will there be a shift to more discriminate killings in time by 🇮🇱?

Y’all! Happy Thanksgiving. Now, don’t you forget to eat your whiskey-dumped pecan pie.

Iran sends up rocket with test living capsule pakobserver.net/iran-sends-up-… #missiles #nuclearpower

Merry Christmas y’all!

Anyone remembers that “secret” joint nuclear test by 🇮🇱 and 🇿🇦 in 1978/1979? Also didn’t 🇮🇱 once transfer Jericho tech to 🇿🇦 to assemble the latter’s RSA-3 ballistic missile: astronautix.com/r/rsa-3.html #IsraelGazaWar #SouthAfrica

Why does 🇩🇪 unequivocally support 🇮🇱? Audience costs: If it supports 🇵🇸, but backs down due to anti-semitism allegations, its leadership domestically suffers more than authoritarians (Schultz 2001). It’s domestically safer for 🇩🇪 to be pro-🇮🇱 than prioritize HR violations.

So, were your predictions about Turkish elections completely miserable? Perhaps it’s high time you stop pretending to be an expert for a minute and learn some advanced statistics. #TurkeyElection

How often did #ısrael conduct maintenance test-launches of its nuclear missiles recently? What if Jericho III is becoming more like Gaddafi’s post-90 Scuds? Without talking about testing records, can we even talk about #ısrael ‘s propensity to nuke #Iran?

Caveat about #IsraelIranConflict predictions: Decades of bargaining research shows that IF both sides agree on each other’s relative destructive capacity, they negotiate. So, if you “the pundit”know all the weapons of both sides, they surely do, and hence won’t fight. (1/2)

When pundits claim that they know all the weapon capacities of both sides, but still predict war/escalation, they indirectly admit that they are wrong. What actually matters is how #Israel and #iran perceive each other’s military capabilities. (2/2).

University students have every right to protest what they find undesirable, harmful, or unjust. Whether you agree is immaterial. If you don’t like their message, write a counter-message or organize a counter-protest. What’s not allowed is violence in any form or incitement to

Below is another research that supports Michael Mousseau ‘s Economic Norms Theory. The inquiry is on Anti-Americanism. Manuscript is written by me. I can’t tell you how grateful I am to Michael for introducing me to the world of quantitative IR, and to Economic Norms Theory. #politcs

If you don’t understand this chart, keep staring at it until you do.

Progressivism used to evoke such achievements as the rise of Parliaments, extending the franchise to women, mass education, labor laws that protect children, and free speech. Now it evokes eliminating math classes, “gender-affirming care,” and disinviting speakers. (1/9)

❤️🇹🇷 FİLENİN SULTANLARI YARI FİNALDE! HARİKASINIZ HARİKA 👏👏 #Paris2024 | #Olympics

Erdoğan, "Spora yaptığımız yatırımın meyvelerini yavaş yavaş topluyoruz" demiş! #Paris2024'te gümüş madalya kazanan milli boksörümüz Hatice Akbaş’ın 2022’de verdiği röportaj: "Kötü bir spor salonunda farelerle antrenman yaptım. Lağım kokuyordu. Oksijen sıfır. Koşuları, tarla ve

One claim I read is that targeted killing won’t decapitate Hamas. Israel’s most viable option may be to continue indiscriminate killings. Very unfortunate, obviously. Of course, this is true if we buy into any systemic tradeoff between discriminate and indiscriminate killing.

One more lane, one more bridge, one more train, one more bus…. It never fixes anything perpetually. Just causes greater congestion… Same for everywhere on earth (urban economics 101)

As a Finn, I know what it feels like to be part of a nation that is several generations into the healing process after an unjust aggression that was successfully averted but not without massive consequences. That’s why it’s killing me what we are doing to Ukrainians. A thread:

Today we honor the memory of all those we lost on September 11, 2001. May we never forget their stories – and the bravery of our first responders and troops who sacrificed so much.