Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile
Φίλιππος

@phileeppos

ID: 274723043

calendar_today30-03-2011 22:41:08

6,6K Tweet

498 Followers

141 Following

Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile Photo

At some point productivity is going to start spiking like it always does as we shed jobs into a recession and there are going to be sooo many takes about how this is the "AI recession"

Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Seeing the argument a lot that bad jobs #s can be explained by low/no immigration. But then wouldn't we expect unemployment down/wage growth up? Otherwise, bad #s still indicate low demand for workers and thus still predictive of recession. Thoughts? Danny Dayan Greg Ip

Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The "market cap" of gold is now 22% of world GDP. It was 8% in 1975, 12% at the 2011 peak, and as far as I can tell has never been higher post-Bretton Woods outside of a brief spike in 1980 when it hit 25%. I've been bullish on gold but it's feeling stretched here

Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile Photo

God forbid housing becomes slightly more affordable. She's talking about *downside* risks to inflation after 5 years where cumulative inflation has more than doubl the Fed's mandate, you can't make this stuff up

Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I was getting a little nervous about my short dollar positions (gold, foreign currencies, foreign stocks) but then I saw this post. This guy is a great contra, he's been predicting deflation for the last 6 years lol

I was getting a little nervous about my short dollar positions (gold, foreign currencies, foreign stocks) but then I saw this post. This guy is a great contra, he's been predicting deflation for the last 6 years lol
Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile Photo

It can't actually do this is the thing. If it could it would be a lot more interesting and disruptive. But it still isn't capable of real narrative of more than a few seconds or shots with very specific details. These failure modes make it very hard to use for real storytelling

Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile Photo

"It makes no sense that AI has had zero impact on aggregate productivity" I think to myself as I spend 30 minutes coding up a toy script with Claude Code to do a task I simply would have avoided forever before (to no real consequence)

Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This is one of those facts that sounds fake if all you do is read fintwit, but inflation adjusted earnings for the S&P 500 are flat to down over the last 4 years. Even in nominal terms they're up an anemic ~10%. In that same time period the index is up ~50%. Lol

Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The concept of "talking your book" is completely lost on the tech press. There isn't going to be a singularity from LLMs lol

Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The art of the deal: Step 1: make a crazy threat you'll never follow through on Step 2: immediately signal to your counterparty that you're ready to cave Step 3: ??? Step 4: Chinese century

Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) 's Twitter Profile Photo

So the OpenAI api is clearly throttled, almost to the point of uselessness. Even if you pay for priority it's about 4x slower than the ChatGPT app/website itself. I.e. they are heavily prioritizing consumer over business applications. That doesn't really scream "AGI"