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Notice the dollar weakening again, despite higher US equities and rates The US admin is back in pump mode, so now we have a bullish setup for global growth, little to no fiscal discipline and still an isolationist posture Not to mention a proposed tax on remittances

While the rest of the world’s stock markets are beating the US like a rented mule this year, all I see out there is SPX bull posting. Will have to ponder what that might imply.

Passed Pawn They went into effect April 10th and it’s not like every good just magically crosses the border at the same time. It’s laughable

It's a 'buy almost everything' sort of day, but I'm not reading too much into it. Bonds were oversold and 8% talk was getting too loud. Stocks are playing opex hula hoop. Gold was also oversold and following bonds. Crypto is down bc you guys took too many victory laps again.

Strategy for navigating the markets since January The US is operating policy by FAFO Slap crazy tariffs on the world, equities crash, remove tariffs Pivot to blowing out the deficit to pump stocks, bonds crash, send out GOP congressmen to say they won't vote for it Trading

Going shopping for some economy wide labor market equilibrium. Anyone need anything?

Fun visualization. Where do you think we’re heading next from the shores of soft landing island?

On one hand, both are tax increases, but on the other, one is a tax on consumption and increases prices directly while the other reduces disposable income. This is an oversimplification, at best.

Stock and bond markets have been moving up and down together for the past week. This relationship changes frequently, but as of now it seems the markets are focused on rates getting a bit too high and the attempt at fiscal discipline being thrown out the window.

Perceived fairness is a well known and important part of a healthy society. Some of the division that exists today is due to what many view as policies that unfairly benefit one group over another. No tax on tips unfairly benefits one type of 'working person' over all others.

Passed Pawn's Perspective 1. Things have certainly changed since the Days of DOGE. Was it ever serious? I never thought so, but the intention might have been there. Regardless, let's just say the spending bill that passed the House doesn't change the fiscal direction. 2. To be

I must have missed the “great time to sell stocks” tweet yesterday

This is some high level stuff. Like how a moving car can actually be described as stationary with all the surroundings moving towards it.

That was a good lesson in 'don't overreact to headlines especially in the overnight session.' Carry on.

Market: nah I'm not moving again I'm tired

Reminder that lots of shenanigans are played on month end You have the predictable rebalancing flows You have the front-runners who add to the volatility You have the faders of the front-running And you have the front-runners of the faders of the front-runners Go outside