kulo (@papa_kulo) 's Twitter Profile
kulo

@papa_kulo

2070tx

ID: 1825603976148013056

calendar_today19-08-2024 18:41:36

108 Tweet

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kulo (@papa_kulo) 's Twitter Profile Photo

It's interesting how quickly the narrative shifts. Crypto bulls from two weeks ago are now listing endless reasons for bearishness. 😂 But seriously, is this the start of a prolonged bear market? I'm leaning towards no. As long as institutional infrastructure remains intact,

kulo (@papa_kulo) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This is a great explanation. The Oct. 10th crash was an overreaction that caused severe damage; a typical correction wouldn't have caused prices to plummet so far and so fast.

kulo (@papa_kulo) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$BTC @ $84,059 Called the $84,250 cascade trigger yesterday. Today it's testing the exact level. Kelly says: -15.9% (DON'T LONG) Sharpe says: -0.23 (UNATTRACTIVE) VaR says: -20.2% (MAXIMUM RISK) The numbers are screaming. Here's what they see: VALIDATION + CREDIBILITY:

$BTC @ $84,059

Called the $84,250 cascade trigger yesterday.

Today it's testing the exact level.

Kelly says: -15.9% (DON'T LONG)
Sharpe says: -0.23 (UNATTRACTIVE)
VaR says: -20.2% (MAXIMUM RISK)

The numbers are screaming. Here's what they see:

VALIDATION + CREDIBILITY:
kulo (@papa_kulo) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$BTC -> Negative Coinbase premium (widest since Q1) - US demand disappeared - Crossexchange funding warfare (price up, funding down = divergence) - Option expiry TODAY - $85K max pain - Thanksgiving eve thin liquidity - Despite a modest +1.97% recovery over 8 hours; price likely

kulo (@papa_kulo) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$BTC stuck between regimes right now - not quite bear, not quite bull. Fundamentals are messy. Macro looks terrible, but the technical side is showing early recovery signs. Counted the signals: 2.1× more bearish than bullish evidence when weighting everything properly. That's

kulo (@papa_kulo) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$BTC - been in a choppy consolidation phase after bouncing from those $82k lows, caught between some heavy macro headwinds like the Fed's hawkish pivot and ETF outflows totaling $4.9B over the past month, versus solid bullish undercurrents from whale accumulation (375k BTC

kulo (@papa_kulo) 's Twitter Profile Photo

96% probability of 25bps cut priced in, but Powell's forward guidance is what matters. Hawkish cut ("no rush" for further easing) = -8% risk. Dovish cut (more cuts in 2026) = +5% upside. Current market positioning, however, suggests preparation for downside.

kulo (@papa_kulo) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Crypto's looking a lot weaker than expected. If it doesn't recover within 24h, we could probably see $75k BTC / $2.3k ETH before a reversal. I'm thinking the 26th (end of day) for the best long entry.

Chyan | chyan.base.eth (@chyan) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Holy $FUCK — top holders look solid as fuck on Nansen 🧭 🧠 Clean spread, real conviction — an all-Chad lineup ready to fuck shit up on Base 😄📈 Can’t fucking fade this.

Holy $FUCK — top holders look solid as fuck on <a href="/nansen_ai/">Nansen 🧭</a> 🧠

Clean spread, real conviction — an all-Chad lineup ready to fuck shit up on <a href="/base/">Base</a> 😄📈
Can’t fucking fade this.