Critics have attacked the House's One Big Beautiful reconciliation bill on fiscal grounds, but I think they are profoundly wrong. It is truly historic. As a nation, we have had no spending cut victories of any consequence in nearly thirty years. In 1997, the Balanced Budget

Musings of the Day, 5/19/25: I’m no Pollyanna on the current trajectory of the Budget Deficit or the size of the National Debt. That said, the periodic and persistent hyperventilation over just one stock/flow measure of Debt/GDP is just plain silly. Ignoring the overall

2025, day 140 Good morning from Europe. U.S. President Trump said he’s leaving Russia and Ukraine to settle their war through talks, withdrawing as mediator. At the same time, he didn’t promise threatened sanctions on Russia, or aid to Ukraine. That could leave Ukraine —and

ian bremmer You are the last person to learn of concessions The talks are schedule direct. Why dont you get Europe to buy US energy and none from Russ and tell your friends to stop selling goods to Russia through its neighbors You are quiet on that and Ukrainian and Russians die

To repeat, what matters for growth and inflation is the change in fiscal policy relative to today - not vs imaginary counterfactuals & weird policy assumptions.

Inflation Is Not Soaring, and Economic Growth Is Solid theepochtimes.com/opinion/inflat… vía @epochtimes

Full Reuters story on the new nuclear EO rumor: WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump will sign executive orders as soon as Friday that aim to jumpstart the nuclear energy industry by easing the regulatory process on approvals for new reactors and strengthening fuel

2025, day 143 Good morning from Asia. Iran threatened to move its nuclear material to secret sites —which it previously didn’t have, recall— under threat of Israel attack, as Axios reports Israeli intel has shifted from believing a nuclear deal was close to thinking talks could

Eventually, the Bond Vigilantes will wake up and see that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" actually slashes the deficit. But of course, they'll have to ignore the Wall Street clowns still drowning in TDS, refusing to admit rates have already peaked. Why do I believe this? Because,

For the record. To counter the noise on MSM 👇 Making Medicare Stronger — Not Cutting It The claim that Trump’s bill slashes Medicare is false. Instead, it focuses on efficiency—cutting waste, fighting fraud, and streamlining, all without cutting benefits or eligibility for

Since April 2 there’s been an incredible about face among western powers about the seriousness of persistent global imbalances, culminating in the current G7 statement. It reflects a sort of begrudging acceptance that the US may have had a point on some of these issues after all.

We are pretty close to a low in USD and a low in bonds. If I were to guess when a turning point is, it would be June 5th. Don’t ask me how I know that. It’s a secret sentiment technique.

2025, day 144 Good morning from Asia. President Trump threatened 50% tariffs on the EU starting 1 June —which they will of course retaliate to— stating “I’m not looking for a deal. I mean, we’ve set the deal. It’s at 50%.” The economic impact of that action would be enormous;

Population that doesn’t want to reproduce itself doesn’t have a vision for the future. The simple message here is that Europe isn’t worth living for. We must break this vicious cycle. Europe only has a future if we enable the return of common sense & spirituality to young people.

NEW: David Sacks says Elon and Trump made history with DOGE—but the RINOs in Congress are killing it. David Sacks just reminded us why the birth of DOGE was a once-in-a-generation moment. “We had a wonderful moment here where you have Elon come in with DOGE, which the president

2025, day 145 Good morning from Asia. NATO is marching closer to spending 5% of GDP on defence by 2032, albeit 1.5 percentage points of that being related cybersecurity and infrastructure. Spain is the hold out. In short, more guns: but the question is if we get less butter or

8/8 The point is that after all the negotiations, if the EU and China savings imbalances aren't resolved, trade negotiations will accomplished very little. China and the EU will still export demand weakness, and the US will still run trade deficits and lose manufacturing share.

2025, day 147 Good morning from Asia. In geopolitics, President Trump is weighing sanctions against Russia, which described his recent verbal barbs about Putin as due to “emotional overload”. Such statecraft tools could potentially have a massive impact; Germany will step up

2025, day 148 Good morning from Asia. President Trump warned President Putin that he’s “playing with fire” and if not for him, “lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD". The threat is clearly of sanctions ahead, which could

2025, day 155 Good morning from Asia. In geopolitics, Ukraine hit Russia again, this time underwater mining the foundations of the Kerch bridge leading to Crimea; Iran says it could accept a U.S. nuclear deal whereby a regional consortium (including it, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,