*IRAN FAJR JAM GAS REFINERY SET ON FIRE BY ISRAEL STRIKE: TASNIM

*IRAN SOUTH PARS GAS FIELD OUTPUT AT ONE PLATFORM HALTED: TASNIM

Additional footage showing a fire burning at the Phase 14 Refinery of the South Pars Gas Field, the largest natural gas field in the world, within the Bushehr Province of Southern Iran, following a strike earlier by Israel.

Interesting, so if targeting this piece it's really impacting domestic electricity, brown/blackout the populace. Incite political instability in the country, but leave international exports/oil flows uninterrupted (US sticking point). Same point HFI Research brought up earlier.

Sounds sufficiently ominous

A White House official told CNN that U.S. President Trump’s post on Truth Social earlier telling Iranians to “immediately evacuate Tehran” reflected the urgency of the need for Iran to come to the negotiating table, with Vice-President JD Vance, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of

Another post moments ago by President Trump, he’s on a roll right now!

Bandwagon (noun) - used in reference to an activity, cause, etc. that is currently fashionable or popular and attracting increasing support. . . . everyone loves a winner, with air superiority.

Goldman - oil prices tracking Polymarket betting on US military action

US crude oil production since Dec 2024 is flatter than a pancake. December 2024 exited 13.172 million b/d. Current production is ~12.9 million b/d.

Oil prices typically track OECD inventories (sans "geopolitical premium"). April bbls via IEA = fairly flat, as builds have come in non-OECD countries (China). Oil prices have moved b/c of Israel/Iran, but gap is wide as nearly every analyst projects large H2 '25 builds.

We surmised correctly that the US attacks, but “the next thing” gets cloudier, which means the geopolitical premium gets stickier until/if inventories balloon to take center stage openinsightscap.com/p/a-trifecta-r…

There needs to be balance from both sides when assessing the oil market. For the bulls, the disappointing WTI open is a reflection of the low probability of significant supply disruptions. For the bears, this is not a market where the risk/reward favors shorting (yet).

The world ex-China has lowest inventories in 8 years.

US oil production . . . watch those decline rates as producers stop running on the treadmill.

Int'l rigs from Baker Hughes. +10 from May to June. YTD were -9 from 671 Dec. '24 to 662 in June '25. OPEC+ down -15 from 335 to 320. Saudis down -4 from 25 to 21. For context, Saudis avg. 37 rigs in '24, 27 rigs for '25. OPEC+ avg 366 in '24 to 322 (-44 rigs) for '25.

Apologies, X account was hacked, ignore everything about crypto that was sent out in the past 24 hrs. Last "official" post was a chart on Saudi rig counts.

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$SCR.TO . . . Adam Waterous interview, "So what we'll probably do is if we don't buy Meg, we'll probably I don't know uh issue a dividend of about maybe about 10 bucks a share." . . . uh or more likely bump up $MEG.TO cash portion $10/sh for total consideration of $29-30/sh.