If you remove #Bitcoin that hasn't moved in 10+ years, the percent of the supply in profit has recently reached all-time lows. 32.73% of the supply is sitting in profit, lower than all prior bear markets. If bottoms occur during max pain, we are certainly there/close to it.

There's a non-zero chance that Bitcoin is simply following the 2019 pattern of price appreciating post bear mkt bottom, then consolidation, then the bull mkt run. Without a March 2020 like Black Swan, we may be in for a range for a while before the next leg up. Food for thought

Sunday Speculation: What if Bitcoin is simply following an extended pattern of the 2019-2021 cycle? History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.

Death, Taxes, and El Salvador adding a Bitcoin a day to their treasury. These are the consistent factors in our life.

There are 1,646 Bitcoin Whales, based off of Glassnode's advanced entity clustering algorithms. Whales are defined as entities that hold over 1K BTC. There are now 147 more whales since the start of 2024. Big money is investing in BTC

If we look at prior Bitcoin Halvings and compare this cycle to the last cycle, we are currently at an end of September 2020 period. At the end of Sept 2020, the BTC price went from $10.5K to over $56K just 5 months later. History doesn't repeat but let's see if it rhymes

Bitcoin is just $2K away from the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, now at $63.6K. If you've been following me for a while, you understand how important the STHCB is as a momentum indicator

Bitcoin reached the STHCB after this post, and we've now seen a battle between the bulls and the bears for momentum around this level. $63.8K is the updated STHCB level that you'd like to see hold if you're a BTC bull

The last two times these metrics merged together, Bitcoin's price found a local bottom

Bitcoin below the STHCB is short-term bearish. This is the rule. I didn’t make it. We now wait for a reclaim of ~$63K

Clear rejection and now we wait for price to catch up. $63.3K is the current line in the sand for Bitcoin.

Patience is a Virtue with #Bitcoin

Price corrections during this Bitcoin bull market have been weak compared to prior bull markets. Zoom out. And embrace the wave of volatility if you plan to hold BTC.

It's either the most muted bull cycle in history or the real bull run hasn't happened yet. If it is a muted bull top, what does a bear bottom look like? Muted as well? In times of uncertainty, I rather stay long Bitcoin than short Bitcoin.

$61.8K then $64K for Bitcoin. This is what I'd like to see cleared.

One could make the argument that Bitcoin is rhyming with the past. If that's the case, enjoy the cheap sats while you can.

Bitcoin has officially broken through the STHCB and is now over $63K. Next step, the 200DMA at $64K.

Bitcoin is at an important level. As BTC consolidates under the 200DMA and above the short-term holder cost basis, now is the time to pay attention to how price responds within this $2K range.

Bitcoin bouncing off the STHCB and quickly moving aggressively to the 200DMA just now. Perfectly moving in this range so far. We watch for the breakout in either direction.

This Bitcoin range looks like it's coming to an end soon. With price coiling and meeting at the 200DMA, we look for a sustained break in either direction. A break above the 200DMA and a retest/hold of this level would be very bullish.