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Noble Predictive Insights

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linkhttp://noblepredictiveinsights.com/ calendar_today02-12-2016 19:35:13

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The NVPOP gathered opinions on whether Trump can end the Department of Education, as well as whether he should. The poll found that a majority (59%) of Nevada voters believe President Trump should not eliminate the Department, while just 29% support its elimination. In terms of

The NVPOP gathered opinions on whether Trump can end the Department of Education, as well as whether he should. The poll found that a majority (59%) of Nevada voters believe President Trump should not eliminate the Department, while just 29% support its elimination. In terms of
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ā€œPeople ultimately want a government that works and provides basic services, like a functioning school system. When voters hear phrases like ā€˜dismantle the Department of Education,’ they recoil. Trump is in a strong position on some issues – like immigration – but voters see him

ā€œPeople ultimately want a government that works and provides basic services, like a functioning school system. When voters hear phrases like ā€˜dismantle the Department of Education,’ they recoil. Trump is in a strong position on some issues – like immigration – but voters see him
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A 47% plurality of Republicans back Trump’s attempts to eliminate the Dept of Ed, but there is division within the different factions of the GOP. Among Trump-first Republicans, support jumps to 61%, but support drops to just 32% among party-first Republicans. Trump has lost

A 47% plurality of Republicans back Trump’s attempts to eliminate the Dept of Ed, but there is division within the different factions of the GOP. Among Trump-first Republicans, support jumps to 61%, but support drops to just 32% among party-first Republicans. Trump has lost
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ā€œIf you have a wedge issue (divides one side, unites the other), you could lose support in Nevada. If Trump is losing some of his party, Democrats are already against him, and he is pushing Independents away, he’s going to have a bad time on that issue.ā€ - David Byler Full

ā€œIf you have a wedge issue (divides one side, unites the other), you could lose support in Nevada. If Trump is losing some of his party, Democrats are already against him, and he is pushing Independents away, he’s going to have a bad time on that issue.ā€ - <a href="/databyler/">David Byler</a>

Full
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Our most recent NVPOP poll shows that Nevada voters are maintaining the same level of optimism since January. 53% feel the state is headed in the right direction, suggesting a general optimism about the future. Full release: hubs.ly/Q03lgTQH0

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Nevada is slightly more purple in April than in January. Currently, Democrats are leading by 3 points on a generic congressional ballot – a 5-point shift from January when Rs led by 2 points. However, Republicans are maintaining the same lead as the preferred party to run the

Nevada is slightly more purple in April than in January. Currently, Democrats are leading by 3 points on a generic congressional ballot – a 5-point shift from January when Rs led by 2 points. However, Republicans are maintaining the same lead as the preferred party to run the
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Republican Governor Joe Lombardo has strong net job approval (+14) and favorability (+10). At the same time, Democratic officials also hold positive ratings – U.S. Senators Jacky Rosen (+12) and Catherine Cortez Masto (+18), along with Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford

Republican Governor Joe Lombardo has strong net job approval (+14) and favorability (+10). At the same time, Democratic officials also hold positive ratings – U.S. Senators Jacky Rosen (+12) and Catherine Cortez Masto (+18), along with Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford
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In Nevada, President Donald Trump continues to generate mixed reactions. His overall net job approval and economic approval both stand at -6, while his net favorability is slightly negative at -2 (statistically equal to his January net favorability of -1). Full release:

In Nevada, President Donald Trump continues to generate mixed reactions. His overall net job approval and economic approval both stand at -6, while his net favorability is slightly negative at -2 (statistically equal to his January net favorability of -1).

Full release:
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ā€œNevada is a purple state because it’s diverse. There are working-class voters of every racial group, many recent arrivals, suburbs, and urban centers – both party coalitions are a wild mix, and many voters don’t belong solely to one team. That diversity and complexity leaves

ā€œNevada is a purple state because it’s diverse. There are working-class voters of every racial group, many recent arrivals, suburbs, and urban centers – both party coalitions are a wild mix, and many voters don’t belong solely to one team. That diversity and complexity leaves
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When asked about the state's most important issues, Nevadans consistently identified economic concerns. Overall, affordable housing (53%), inflation (48%), and healthcare (37%) emerged as the top three issues. Notably, affordable housing overtook inflation as the number 1 issue

When asked about the state's most important issues, Nevadans consistently identified economic concerns. Overall, affordable housing (53%), inflation (48%), and healthcare (37%) emerged as the top three issues. Notably, affordable housing overtook inflation as the number 1 issue
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ā€œNevada voted for Trump, in part, because they were discontented with rising prices under Joe Biden. Right now, they’re still dealing with this issue, with housing costs as a leading cause of financial pain. But what’s left off this list is just as important as what’s on it. Now

ā€œNevada voted for Trump, in part, because they were discontented with rising prices under Joe Biden. Right now, they’re still dealing with this issue, with housing costs as a leading cause of financial pain. But what’s left off this list is just as important as what’s on it. Now
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Members from our Data Team attended the annual aapor conference, and it was a blast! Connecting with others in the polling universe, exchanging best practices, and always finding ways we can continue to improve. Already looking forward to next year's conference! David Byler

Members from our Data Team attended the annual <a href="/AAPOR/">aapor</a>  conference, and it was a blast! Connecting with others in the polling universe, exchanging best practices, and always finding ways we can continue to improve. Already looking forward to next year's conference! <a href="/databyler/">David Byler</a>
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Karrin Taylor Robson currently leads the GOP gubernatorial primary field with 24%, while Andy Biggs and Charlie Kirk were tied at 17% each. However, Kirk announced his endorsement of Biggs just as the May AZPOP exited the field – a development that could significantly reshape the

Karrin Taylor Robson currently leads the GOP gubernatorial primary field with 24%, while Andy Biggs and Charlie Kirk were tied at 17% each. However, Kirk announced his endorsement of Biggs just as the May AZPOP exited the field – a development that could significantly reshape the
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Given Biggs’ and Kirk’s shared ideological profile and overlapping favorability ratings among GOP voters (net +27 and net +28, respectively), it’s likely that some of Kirk’s supporters will consolidate behind Biggs. Kirk’s endorsement gives Biggs a path to consolidate

Given Biggs’ and Kirk’s shared ideological profile and overlapping favorability ratings among GOP voters (net +27 and net +28, respectively), it’s likely that some of Kirk’s supporters will consolidate behind Biggs. Kirk’s endorsement gives Biggs a path to consolidate
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ā€œThe moment Kirk stepped out and backed Biggs, the math changed. Biggs now has the opportunity to inherit a young, digital-savvy base that Kirk built, which could be decisive. TPUSA is a young person thing. Biggs could be getting more than an endorsement. He could be getting an

ā€œThe moment Kirk stepped out and backed Biggs, the math changed. Biggs now has the opportunity to inherit a young, digital-savvy base that Kirk built, which could be decisive. TPUSA is a young person thing. Biggs could be getting more than an endorsement. He could be getting an
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In a rare move, Trump has endorsed both Taylor Robson and Biggs in this race. Now, the GOP field features two Trump-endorsed candidates with distinct advantages. Taylor Robson: high net fav, 3x Biggs' campaign funds Biggs: Kirk endorsement, grassroots appeal Full release:

In a rare move, Trump has endorsed both Taylor Robson and Biggs in this race. Now, the GOP field features two Trump-endorsed candidates with distinct advantages. 
Taylor Robson: high net fav, 3x Biggs' campaign funds
Biggs: Kirk endorsement, grassroots appeal

Full release:
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The poll also explored what qualities led GOP voters to support their candidate of choice in a primary, offering a closer look at what personal qualities resonate most with their core supporters. Full release: hubs.ly/Q03pDLVm0

The poll also explored what qualities led GOP voters to support their candidate of choice in a primary, offering a closer look at what personal qualities resonate most with their core supporters.

Full release: hubs.ly/Q03pDLVm0
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Karrin Taylor Robson voters cited border enforcement, loyalty to Trump, and a strong focus on taxes as her top traits. Andy Biggs voters also cited border enforcement, focus on taxes, and Trump loyalty in high shares, but Biggs’ voters also highly rate his elected office

Karrin Taylor Robson voters cited border enforcement, loyalty to Trump, and a strong focus on taxes as her top traits. Andy Biggs voters also cited border enforcement, focus on taxes, and Trump loyalty in high shares, but Biggs’ voters also highly rate his elected office
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ā€œThere’s a lot of overlap between what Biggs supporters and Taylor-Robson supporters see in their preferred candidate. To me, that suggests that we are still extremely early in this race. Voters don’t have well-formed opinions of either. Things are still fluid.ā€ - David Byler

ā€œThere’s a lot of overlap between what Biggs supporters and Taylor-Robson supporters see in their preferred candidate. To me, that suggests that we are still extremely early in this race. Voters don’t have well-formed opinions of either. Things are still fluid.ā€ - <a href="/databyler/">David Byler</a>
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In early hypothetical matchups for the 2026 gubernatorial race, Hobbs leads both Biggs and Taylor Robson by 2 points, but her margin is far from insurmountable with 17% undecided in each matchup. While no other Democrat has officially announced a campaign, Hobbs maintains a solid

In early hypothetical matchups for the 2026 gubernatorial race, Hobbs leads both Biggs and Taylor Robson by 2 points, but her margin is far from insurmountable with 17% undecided in each matchup. While no other Democrat has officially announced a campaign, Hobbs maintains a solid