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In my comments in this piece by Andrew England James Shotter & Neri Zilber I emphasized that U.S. approach to talks has to evolve if it wants to see a different outcome this time. Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks take on fresh urgency with Middle East on edge on.ft.com/46M9ANW

On point 4 listed below (if accurate): Thinning out of troops from the Philadelphi Corridor will have to eventually result in a full withdrawal if this is to stand a chance of success.

Others also baffled by Blinken today. “That statement baffled some Israeli officials who told Axios that Netanyahu's hard lines are actually making a deal much harder to reach.” Netanyahu's ceasefire doublespeak: Dovish with U.S., hawkish with negotiators axios.com/2024/08/19/net…

There’s no ceasefire if Israel insists on remaining in the Philadelphi corridor and keeping Rafah closed. Phasing/sequencing is one thing, but terms that make that outcome effectively impossible won’t work.

Some pretty serious details yet to be finalized. Notable that Hamas not walking away just yet: “‘It’s not clear what the timeframe is for the presence or what reduced presence means and whether they continue to control exit and entry through Rafah,’ the diplomat said.”

Avoiding regional escalation is a good outcome (for now), but touting this as an achievement at this juncture will only further regional cynicism around talks, with many already of the belief that the process, and sustaining it, has become the goal, as opposed to actual agreement

A creative proposal from my colleague Brian Finucane for President Biden; a first step he could take himself to tend to the long overdue issue of outdated war authorizations.

Egyptian rejection very predictable. And it’s not simply an Egyptian decision in any event. Good to see the U.S. objecting, as this is a known deal breaker. Lastly, if these maps are a non-starter, hard to reconcile that with Blinken’s previous statement re Israel acceptance.

U.S. has devoted significant time and resources to Gaza ceasefire talks, and yet, despite this major effort, administration’s approach continues to lack urgency. Chiding and scolding won’t get a deal done. This is particularly strange to me in light of the political stakes.

*tip-toes back into this blighted hellscape just long enough to tell you about this*

And the U.S. can find itself along for the ride.

Important reading for #UNSC watchers from Maya Ungar on how the #SecurityCouncil is dividing over #sanctions: crisisgroup.org/global/politic…

It’s hard to be optimistic about #Haiti, but Diego Da Rin and I argue in this new piece Foreign Affairs that there is a small but important window of opportunity now for some progress. We cannot afford to allow it to close.

If this decision sticks there will not be a ceasefire.

Without a ceasefire, which has been the sum total of U.S. policy for months, what is the plan B for U.S. policy?

In a piece for The Wire China, I argue that an oft-heard conclusion—that the United States got China “wrong”—misreads history and could lead U.S. foreign policy astray. I appreciate Andrew Peaple’s giving me the opportunity to write it. thewirechina.com/2024/09/01/why…

Notable to see Qatar expressing its solidarity with Egypt, rejecting Netanyahu’s comments on ceasefire negotiations. In contrast, we have recently seen a number of joint statements from Qatar and Egypt along with the United States.

Framing of Hamas/Sinwar as main roadblock to a deal now is very odd. Maybe they would eventually refuse to sign off, but right now issue is clearly Netanyahu and new stipulations. U.S. effort to broker Mideast ceasefire gets a new sense of urgency apple.news/AeXwIAIj3TM-Gy…

With the immediate focus on Philadelphi and Rafah, obviously the timing is not coincidental. A long-term Israeli occupation is a major issue for Egypt (and the U.S.).

NEW REPORT | Stemming Israeli Settler Violence at Its Root Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank are on the rise, with a spike since Israel’s present government took office and another since October 2023. crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…